Replies to post #281871 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[meirluc]

Stockholm approaching a 30% coronavirus infection rate must imply that the number of asymptomatic infections greatly outnumber the number of symptomatic infections.

Is there an estimate of the Stockholm's rate of asymptomatic infections when compared to the symptomatic infection rate?

Furthermore, if 30% of Stockholm's population has been infected, that still leaves 70% vulnerable. I am no expert but my hunch is that with only a 30% infection rate, herd immunity has not as yet been reached.

I am also wondering how Stockholm has been protecting its elderly population.

[skitahoe]

If killing people is the goal, Sweden has chosen it, and so is Trump by encouraging opening back up before the curve is dramatically dropping. Certainly his economy is ruined, but it didn't need to be, the money that was supposed to go to all the small businesses went mostly to the wealthy, who never turn down free money.

As for the money going to all of us who aren't over a certain income level, an economist friend who knows people all over the country made an observation based on people he's spoken with. It seems the checks are going first to State's that Trump needs to win, or are viewed to be Red States. I don't know anyone here in California who's gotten one yet, but I did go to IRS.gov and was told I qualify. That money was promised over a month ago, they indicated it would be dispensed in days, but I guess that was only if you live in a Red State.

We're no where near the population of many countries in the world that are fighting coronavirus, yet we have the most deaths, most people infected, is that what Trump takes as being Number One.

Gary

[GoodGuyBill]

I think increasing case numbers IS a bad thing. But a state with significantly increased rate of infection while states are curtailing social distancing measures is very bad.

Regarding Stockholm, your assumption that herd immunity will occur at 50% is a guess, imho. Britain had that plan initially but when an analysis by immunologists at Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine on the impact of the coronavirus in Italy suggested that up to 30 percent of patients hospitalized with the virus would require intensive care treatment, overwhelming their healthcare system, they abruptly abandoned that strategy (See Foreign Policy magazine article here). All of this is waaaay over my head but given the potential deaths of significant numbers of Americans, it seems the prudent thing to do is continue social distancing until we can validate this 'herd mentality' strategy.

Though I agree "The stricter the lockdown, the harder it is to exit". But the looser the lockdown, the more people die and with 30,000,000 (30 million people) already filing for unemployment, our economy has been decimated to the point that the recovery (i.e. getting the economic engine running again) will be hard whatever decision is made from here.

Relying on a vaccine isn't a good idea...but if a good number of states are seeing cases rise significantly and in the midst of that rise they are reopening solons, barber shops and restaurants and forcing employees to meat-packing plants WITHOUT AND TESTING OR SAFE GUARDS, what else can the average American do?

Didn't we already deal with the false equivalence between the flu and covid-19? Your statement, "Once Covid-19 becomes endemic, it will be only a little worse than seasonal flu" is just bat-shit-crazy talk. Covid-19 has killed 80K people in less than 3.5 months! It ain't the flu!

And we don't have a "full range of test scenarios in the different approaches adopted state by state" as you stated. Many of these states are not even testing. Hell the entire country is testing 250,000 people a day!!!!!!!! We barely have enough swabs to maintain that. In looking at the state-by-state approach to handling this virus, I don't see how you can be so nonchalant. The approaches these states are taking-- disbanding scientific evaluation, refusal to report covid19 cases/deaths, refusing to enforce/modify OSHA guidelines to protect workers, not even requiring business to report covid cases. But all the while States are search for ways to avoid legal liabilities from employees getting covid19 from state/business negligence. WE NEED A FEDERAL/NATIONAL PLAN TO DEAL WITH THIS not a state-by-state piecemeal approach.

If only NWBO could be tweaked to fight covid-19!

[exwannabe]

Increasing case numbers is not a bad thing per se. Increasing deaths obviously is.

I tend to think they are somewhat related.


For those who argue death data, look at this graph of total deaths (any cause) on NYC. It has nothing to do with how deaths are coded, what the cause is or any such. It is dead bodies in NYC proper (not metro area).
NY Times article on total death numbers

That was 20K more total deaths than expected since the outbreak. Likely close to 30K when all over.

That is .35% of the population, it does not matter how you count it. And we do not know as fact that it would not have been worse without the lockdown (though I accept the possibility that in places like NYC, N Italy and parts of Spain it has fully played out).

For those who have a hard time with math, that would be about 1M deaths in the US. About 250K in the UK.

Yes, it will be the old and weak. And you can argue they would have dies anyway. But it is still a lot of body bags that is something a politician is not going to want to see.

Personally I lean towards ending lockdowns in most of the west. It is way to widespread to be contained and I do not see a vaccine this year. While the damage cause by the lockdowns is very real.