Keep in mind that even if JT intends to GIA, a hostile BO bid could emerge. As you pointed out the shareholder base has changed since the Du decision and way more shares have traded than all the fully diluted shares outstanding. Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan stand to make a great deal of money in fees and commission if they support a BP client into making an offer. They may actually believe they have enough institutional support to win in a vote. BP may want to strike before JT has a chance to fritter away the BO value of Europe by doing P&D deals for individual countries. If a BP wants to own AMRN what better time to pursue a hostile bid than now?
(I do not want JT to gamble the companies fate based on a court decision.)