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relocatedmetsfan

04/08/20 9:52 AM

#263894 RE: AnotherInvestor #263847

AnotherInvestor, Hamky - This market feels like where it was towards the end of January and first week of Feburary. We saw how the virus was killing people in China, how the CCP was reacting to it (entire shutdowns of cities, welding people inside of apartment buildings, tracking every single person with a mobile app), and didn't believe the official numbers (the real numbers were most likely much higher). But yet the market was not pricing in how the US would react once it spread over here. And it wasn't "if" it would hit here, it was "once" it hit here.

Right now, we are looking at a market that is not pricing in a potential economic depression. The hints are there (news articles stating that 1/3 of renters have not yet paid their rent for April, that ~3% of govt back mortgages went into forebarance with a lump sum due in July, record number of 10mm people unemployed within the past two weeks with no end in sight, etc.), but markets keep moving up the past week.

The Amarin share price is not insulated from any of this, as it usually has tracked along with the larger indices. Neither is any potential buy out. Unless there is a bidding war that starts and cannot be stopped, BP most likely will want to wait until the smoke clears until they commit on pulling the trigger.

Vascepa sales are also not insulated from this. People that are laid off have to switch their insurance providers. I don't know exactly how many of these people take Vascepa, but the number won't be zero. We may consider Vascepa a life-saving medication that one should not stop taking, but many people look at a medication that is not providing day-to-day immediate benefits as something that can be rationed or temporarily stopped in favor of paying other bills, debts, etc.