Replies to post #82299 on Mohacsy's Safe Portfolio Member Forum

[Elroy Jetson]

Even after the fact, the number of Covid-2/SARS deaths will be under-reported due to the shortage of testing. The people still die, but not officially dying from the pandemic.

The lack of testing is even affecting care for the living in places like Massachusetts where labs are testing lab samples only once rather than twice, in order to stretch out scarce test kits, leaving Doctors dealing with a 30% false negative rate rather than a 9% false negative rate.


The number of deaths from 'pneumonia' were unusually high in Northern Italy in December, just they are now in many third world nations like Indonesia and even worse in Ecuador where dead bodies are lying in the streets for days. - https://www.malaymail.com/news/world/2020/04/05/ecuador-vp-apologises-after-virus-corpses-left-on-streets/1853758 - https://www.vaticannews.va/en/church/news/2020-04/covid19-ecuador-church-response.html - The patients in hospital in Northern Italy who were being treated for 'pneumonia' in December 2019 is what quickly spread the pandemic in Italy as no infectious disease precautions were taken. This took a heavy toll on healthcare workers.


Coronavirus death toll: Americans are almost certainly dying of covid-19 but being left out of the official count

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/coronavirus-death-toll-americans-are-almost-certainly-dying-of-covid-19-but-being-left-out-of-the-official-count/2020/04/05/71d67982-747e-11ea-87da-77a8136c1a6d_story.html

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention counts only deaths in which the presence of the coronavirus is confirmed in a laboratory test. “We know that it is an underestimation,” agency spokeswoman Kristen Nordlund said.

A widespread lack of access to testing in the early weeks of the U.S. outbreak means people with respiratory illnesses died without being counted, epidemiologists say. Even now, some people who die at home or in overburdened nursing homes are not being tested, according to funeral directors, medical examiners and nursing home representatives.

Postmortem testing by medical examiners varies widely across the country, and some officials say testing the dead is a misuse of scarce resources that could be used on the living. In addition, some people who have the virus test negative, experts say.

As a result, public health officials and government leaders lack a complete view of the pandemic’s death toll as they assess its course and scramble to respond.

Scientists who analyze mortality statistics from influenza and other respiratory illnesses say it is too early to estimate how many fatalities have gone unrecorded. For a disease with common symptoms such as covid-19, they said, deaths with positive results almost certainly represent only a fraction of the total caused by the disease.

[santafe2]

We might have to agree to disagree on that point Ron. As long as the testing or lack of testing remains somewhat consistent, it's not too difficult to model. It's very similar to modeling the outbreak in China where I fist began working on this. It doesn't matter if the government is lying about the actual case count as long as they continue to lie in same relative quantity...hint, they did.

[n4807g]

And we'll never really know how many untested covid-19 infected there were, which makes statistical modeling very difficult.. Plenty of noise in this model.