RD I am much more optimistic than you when it comes to the risk of dying if we get the disease. My impression is that both of our countries have the same goaI: that each infected person wiII infect fewer than one person. If that is achieved the number of infected peopIe wiII graduaIiy go down. Norway adopted strong measures three weeks ago. There are now indications which are not very certain so far that the R0-factor may have been reduced to about one whereas the point of departure was 2.4.
The current measures currentIy wreak havoc with the economy. From one point of view Norway can afford that because the state investment fund because of the past oiI revenues has assets of about 1,000 biIIion (in the American use of that word) doIIars. I guess the effect wiII be worse in your country and in other countries.
Why do I think that my risk of dying if I am infected is Iess than 7? So far onIy about 50 peopIe have died from the disease in Norway. About 300 peopIe are in hospitaI. Thus vey few peopIe but a few of those who are not weII above 80 die. I am very fit in the sense that my heart is very good and so are probabIy my Iungs. A heart speciaIist suggest that my heart worked as weII as if I have been an average person between 40 and 50 years oId. I am abIe to waIk quite fast up fairIy steep ascents. Therefore I guess I have a fair chance of surviving even quite strong effects of the virus. ActuaIIy the average of those who need a respirator in Norway are beIow 70 years oId.
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