We have the same risk of dying from the disease. Close to 7% if we get the virus. You, because you are 77 and I because I am 51 + diabetes.
I learned something important yesterday. In fact, it is crucial. A number of people including experts have been saying that close to 60% of the population will get infected. But this isn't true.
The rate of spreading (R0) is already down to 1 in the Netherlands. And probably in most countries. This means that there will not be more cases. Let's assume that there are 5,000 known cases now, in your country or mine. Then the real number of infected people could be 10x higher because as you know, there are delays (14 day incubation period). So then the real number is, say 50,000. On a population of 15M what this means is, that only 1 in every 300 people will be infected at any given point in time. For the next 12-18 months until there is a cure.
1 in 300. Which means that the risk is far less than what most experts have predicted. And, the Dutch policy makers are targeting an R0 < 1 which means that the 50,000 number could even go down over time.
What this means for us is, that the strategy of avoiding the virus may very well work. If only 1 in 300 are infected at any point in time.
What this also means is, that Mexico, Brazil, possibly the US and a few other countries are pursuing the wrong strategy... By letting the virus spread. Actually the Dutch made the same mistake. Two weeks ago they also wanted to let the virus spread gradually. But they changed their mind. Are all these countries just learning this now? Hmmm.
