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Bouf

03/20/20 8:16 PM

#254513 RE: IgnoranceIsBliss #254508

T—thanks for sharing.

A
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sts66

03/21/20 3:29 PM

#254710 RE: IgnoranceIsBliss #254508

That guy has absolutely no qualifications in the health or stats fields, and his claim that if 75% of Americans get infected and 4% die, 10M deaths will occur is a terribly flawed estimate. The death rate for infected people is nowhere close to 4%, that's the number for people who tested positive for CV-19 after being admitted to a hospital *and* who had traveled abroad or been in contact with others who tested positive (CDC testing guidelines). Researchers at Columbia University estimate that the number of undetected cases is 11 times more than has been officially reported because of the lack of testing - the real death rate is likely 0.3% or less. You have to assume that every single person age 65 or older (~49M) will get infected and a significant number will die to get deaths in the millions.

As of today there have been about 24k confirmed cases and 288 deaths:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

That's a death rate of 0.12%, not the 4% rate being reported by the press - throw in the number of people who got infected but not tested and got well and the rate is even lower - my question is if this virus is really so deadly where are the missing fatalities? We should have way more dead people on our hands by now - something is being grossly under or over estimated.