Replies to post #3039 on GulfSlope Energy Inc (GSPE)

[Philvb]

nice to read this in the press release :

-The insurance proceeds should provide the majority of the funds required to drill Tau No. 2."

[db7]

very nice! added again today

[smith199]

Activities around the Ensco 102 rig continue today. It is the second day I have noticed the Ensco 102 rig sitting smack-dab-in-the-middle of what shows to be some form of Semi Submersible Heavy Lift vessel. Not 100% certain, but it is registering on the AIS system as a “Tug and Special Craft”.

Yesterday and Monday the ‘Wildcat’ Offshore Supply ship made two trips by the Ensco 102 rig from Port Fourchon.

Yes, Gulfslope’s ”2020 Drilling Campaign” appears to be advancing.


Smith





Theses are my personal thoughts. Please do not base your investment decisions off any message board posts.

[smith199]

Thank you Ryguy008 & spec, my free version of Marinetraffic.com did not recognize Ensco B YP, just the Ensco 68.

Also, the free Marinetraffic.com showed a large Tug and Special Craft image with a hollow middle, and the Ensco 102 rig image was in the hollow circle of the Tug and Special Craft image.

On Monday, it reflected the ‘Wildcat’ Offshore vessel’s path to be on the North side of the Ensco 102 rig, and yesterday on the South side of the Ensco 102 rig. Looking in to purchasing a vessel tracking membership with more detailed maritime information.

Smith



These are my personal thoughts. Please do not base your investment decisions off any message board posts.

[smith199]

2nd favorite sentence, “ Insurance Proceeds should provide the majority of the funds required to drill a Tau well no. 2 to 21,543’ measured depth (20,000 TVD)”. Personally, I expect Gulfslope Energy to have a plan on how the Tau-2 well will be completely funded.

Per Gulfslope’s PR, the Tau-2 well’s ‘Perspective Intervals’ that are being ‘Targeted’ below salt have been enhanced by the new surface location. Over the past months, Gulfslope’s Team appears to have worked hard and smart affording them the most advantageous Tau-2 well drill plan path.

Interesting fact, there have been 46,000 plus wells successfully drilled in the GOM Shallow-water. It seems Gulfslope’s Got This.

I am very happy and excited to be a small part of an Emerging Growth Company like Gulfslope Energy, and their 2020 Drilling Campaign!

Source: Gulfslope’s 2/27/2020 Press Release


Smith



Theses are my personal thoughts. Please do not base your investment decisions off any message board posts.

[smith199]

Should GSPE set a 2020 percentage increase record high today, Gulfslope could very well get more positive news coverage by some of the financial websites.

There is an undeniable benefit with being involved in an Emerging Growth Company right now. Observing a slow, steady and strong upward movement.


Smith



These are my personal thoughts. Please do not base your investment decisions off any message board posts.

[smith199]

GSPE’s RUN has just begun!

86% of today’s volume was $.022 or better. Once again, GSPE’s traded volume was above the average volume for the day.

We all know Gulfslope Energy has just kicked-off their 2020 Drilling Campaign, and is far from being over.

Smith



Theses are my personal thoughts. Please do not base your investment decisions off any message board posts.

[smith199]

“Yes, oil is a volatile commodity prone to swift price swings based on current events. But CEO’s like Wirth of Chevron and Woods of Exxon can’t run their businesses by zigging and zagging with the price of oil. They have to make long-term plans based on what they believe will be the industry’s long-term drivers.”

I expect the above quote to be very similar to Gulfslope Energy’s Business Model and Company Philosophy. Gulfslope Energy’s 2020 Drilling Campaign places them as one of the top Emerging Growrth Companies with a 2020 drilling plan for the GOM OCS GOM Shallow-water.

An Exploration Oil and Gas Find in the GOM Shallow-water by Gulfslope Energy could have a sizable impact on GSPE’s financials and stock price. A Tau-2 well find may also bring a positive International impact to Delek Group, as well as to their financials.

US Shale is starting to decline over the next few years, and experts have said one of the next big finds is not onshore, but Offshore Gulf of Mexico.

The EIA predicts oil demand to grow until 2025 and then plateau until 2040. Demand for natural gas, meanwhile, continues to grow through 2040.

“Simply put, oil and natural gas aren’t going away. A growing global population, notably in developing markets, and increasing global prosperity are key drivers here. There is another factor to consider here, as well. Oil and natural gas are depleting assets. So once a barrel is pulled from the ground, it is gone for good. And oil wells don’t produce forever,” as is the case with US Shale.

“During Exxon’s forth quarter conference call, CEO Darren Woods discussed his choice to keep investing in production growth despite currently low oil prices by explaining to investors that:
We know demand will continue to grow driven by rising population, economic growth, and higher standards of living. We know that excess capacity will shrink, typically faster than people think, and margins will rise. Then, new capacity will be needed. These are the classic price cycles of capital intensive commodity industries.”

Chevron’s CEO Michael Wirth, “We look at a long-term view, really, on supply and demand. And we don’t overlay these shorter-term phenomena into our thinking about price.”

The source below is a good article to read in my opinion, and I included a few excerpts above.

Source: The Motley Fool, titled ‘Chevron CEO: Ignore Short-Term Factors, Focus on Supply and Demand’, by Reuben Gregg Brewers, article dated February 10, 2020


Smith




These are my personal thoughts. Please do not base your investment decisions on any message board posts.

[smith199]

Delek Group holds 24.46% of Gulfslope’s share capital, and 75% working interest in the Tau Prospect’s Recoverable Resources.

On March 9, 2020 Delek Group released their March 8, 2020 Cash Flow Forecast Report. Delek’s consolidated cash flow forecast report is for a period of 6 years commencing January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2025.

Delek’s Exchange Rate used on the forecast report is USD 1 = NIS 3.45.

Delek’s cumulative cash flow forecast closing balance of cash and liquid balances at the end of the sixth year (December 31, 2025) is 605 million USD

For the first two years ending December 31, 2020 and December 31, 2021 Delek’s Closing balance of Cash and Liquid balances is 280 million USD and 237 million USD, respectively.

To be conservative Delek did not include some items in their cash flow forecast, but they still had a significant positive additional impact on the forecast. A couple of the items were taking on a Partner Pre-IPO in Ithaca, and disposal of additional non-mortgaged and lien free assets. Delek also hedged Ithaca’s production volume.

Delek’s net total financial debt at the end of the sixth year (December 31, 2025) is only 9 million USD.

I thought these were some important facts to point out on Delek’s March 8, 2020 Cash Flow Forecast Report, since Delek Group is a 75% working interest partner in the Tau Prospect and a 24.46% GSPE shareholder.

Source: Delek Group’s website, Investors, Regulatory Filings, March 9, 2020 Cash Flow Forecast Report


Smith




These are my personal thoughts. Please do not base your investment decisions off any message board posts.

[smith199]

EIA Forecasts ‘Brent’ to average $55/b in 2021 and average $43/b in 2020, this includes the EIA’s current revisions as of March 11, 2020. Note: ‘Louisiana Light’s’ crude oil price is the closest to the International Benchmark ‘Brent’.

All of Gulfslope’s Prospects Breakeven is less than $20/bbl.

Delek’s Cash Flow Forecast Report regarding Ithaca Energy’s ‘assumptions for forecast gas and oil prices’ averaged $53/b
2020 - 52.50
2021 - 53.00
2022 - 55.00
2023 - 57.00
2024 - 58.00
2025 - 57.00

Note: Ithaca Energy is hedged for 80%, 50%, and 35% of production volumes in 2020, 2021, and 2022, respectively. I would expect Delek Group to continually be monitoring, revising, and restructuring their offsetting positions.

A couple of important factors about Delek Group’s Cash Flow Forecast Report.

1. It was prepared “voluntarily” by Delek’s management (due to recent events), and “was structured according to the format specified by the Securities Regulations.”

2. Delek’s Board of Directors on March 8, 2020 approved the forecast for ”reasonableness of the assumptions and reasonableness of the financial scope of the sources.”

3. The Cash Flow Forecast Report takes into account obligatory repayments of the company’s loans at the dates set in the loan agreements.

4. Delek’s Cumulative Cash Flow Closing balance of Cash and liquid balances as of December 31, 2025 is 605 million USD.

5. Delek’s Cash Flow Closing balance of Cash and liquid balances as of December 31, 2020 and December 31, 2021 is 280 million USD and 237 million USD, respectively.

Maybe some of the above will be assisting Gulfslope in their drilling campaign. Gulfslope has their insurance redrill 3/4 of the way down on the Tau-2 well, and I am sure the insurance company is going to want to get this moving once there are permit approvals. Going off the Tau-1 well budget, I am estimating that this insurance claim redrill could be around 30-35 million USD. How long do you think the Insurance Company is going to want a 35 million dollar settlement sitting on their financials? The claim is a redrill not a refund, I am sure the insurance company will want to get this moving once there are permit approvals. So I’m thinking they might start with the Tau-2 well first in their 2020 drilling campaign, since that makes the most sense.

Gulfslope stated they have filed for a lease extension on the VR 375, and I feel there is more than a good chance the BOEM will approve it. Reminder, the BOEM has approved all of Gulfslope’s previous extensions, and I feel the BOEM’s statutory authority could easily do the same again. Gulfslope stated on their recent 10Q they were working on “any” BOEM Regulatory extensions available for “all” their Leases.

Gulfslope’s 9/2019 Presentation reflected the Anadarko/Corvette’s and Tau’s drill time-line to both be around 4 months. Possibly they could drill the Tau-2 well, and then move the ENSCO 102 HD JU rig over to the Corvette/Anadarko Prospect. This would coincide with the EIA’s forecasted crude oil price increase to $55/b, and the Anadarko well’s production coming online. BTW, Gulfslope’s flat-rate pricing was $55/bbl on all their Prospects. I am sure Gulfslope has an option again for an additional well on their current rig contract with Valaris, and besides the fleet status report did not reflect any contracts after Gulfslope for the ENSCO 102 rig.


Hopefully soon we will be getting additional news from Gulfslope on their Drilling Campaign.


GSPE Long and STRONG,


Smith



These are my personal thoughts. Please do not base your investment decisions off any message board posts.

[smith199]

Recently the BOEM and DOI Proposed a Policy Change on the “Application for the Royalty Relief Discount” to a maximum of 25% on Shallow water specific “New Wells” on Existing BOEM leases by a Project Basis. The original Royalty Relief Discount was 15% across the board for both Deep and Shallow water, but the recently revised 25% is ‘specific‘ to Shallow water only.

For the Tau and Corvette Prospect’s BOEM leases G35244 and 35193, this could be a revised BSEE Royalty Rate of 14.06% down from the original rate of 18.75%. Reminder, the other Tau and Corvette leases G36121 and G36357 have the newer lower Royalty Rate of 12.50%.

This additional 10% increase to the BSEE ‘Royalty Relief Discount Option’ was not in place when Gulfslope calculated their Prospect’s less than $20/bbl Breakeven on the September 2019 Presentation. So we could anticipate a further reduction in the < $20/bbl Breakeven on the Tau and Corvette Prospects once this policy is implemented and requested.

Another Proposed Policy Change was the Halting of the Removal of Standing Assets (Platform Facilities) in the GOM Shallow water; which would further accommodate increased oil and gas Exploration and Production, and the Protection of the Fishing Industry surrounding the Artificial ‘Platform’ Reefs.

Remember, the BOEM has their 254 Lease Sale this Wednesday, March 18, 2020. I do not anticipate Gulfslope adding to their lease portfolio at this time, but viewing the BOEM Live Stream Lease Sale at 9 am on March 18th can be both interesting and engaging. Note: All Shallow water leases (<400 meters) have the lower Royalty Rate of 12.50%.


Smith



Source: BOEM.GOV, ‘Special Report by BOEM Director Scott Angelle discussing the importance of the Shallow Water Province through a five-part video Interview Series on Houma TV”, and ‘DOI’ Department of Interior.gov





These are my personal thoughts. Please do not base your investment decisions off any message board posts.