Replies to post #264431 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[sukus]

That is it. Thanks Lykiri for the key info “Prevent the tumor from coming back”. Prevention is always better.


“More than 95% of the time, these tumors come back in a year or two, so the goal is to prevent this tumor from coming back,” Liau said. “It all boils down to inducing the body’s immune system to recognize the tumor as foreign somehow.”

[sharpie510]

I was somewhat surprised regarding this slide way back when it first made its rounds (if she meant the 14% comprised of both "No progression/recurrence" and "Progression/recurrence, then other" groups, she should have applied a gray & blue color swatch for the legend instead of all gray). The fact that they pulled this video (after the controversy of this slide perhaps?) and then reinstated it late 2018 tells me that Dr. Liau has no issue with this slide and the entire presentation she gave.

[meirluc]

Lykiri, I am wondering whether Dr. Liau's statement that "more than 95% of the time, these tumors come back in a year or two" is somewhat over pessimistic since nowadays a 5 year survival rate of 5% or even higher does not seem abnormal. Of course some of those post 1-2 years progressors may have been able to reach 5 years alive but then others may progress more than 2 years after enrollment and then suffer their last event before their 5 years are up.

What has given me a few headaches is that in the DCVax-L trial only 10.7% of the 331 patients or about 35 patients succumbed during the first 12 months post surgery (about 9 months post enrollment).

Even if as many as half of such patients (17-18) are placebo patients who early on suffered from severe health issues and therefore did not receive DCVax-L, that still leaves 15-16 placebos who did not receive DCVax-L.

Is it possible that 15-16 placebos never received DCVax-L because they never progressed?

If so, together with the few placebo/control patients who received DCVax-L after progression and managed to reach 36 months alive, the total number of such long living placebo/control patients may amount to more than 20.

That by itself may not result in a failed trial but it may be a reason for concern.