EDP-514 (for HBV) has a higher probability of success than either of ENTA’s FXR compounds, IMO. First, HBV is much better understood than NASH, where drug-developers aren’t sure which biological targets are the best ones to modulate.
Second, HBV is an enormous—and readymade—commercial market; diagnosis is trivial and any functional cure will fly off the shelves with scarcely any need for marketing or cajoling of third-party payers. With NASH, on the other hand, a firm diagnosis requires a liver biopsy and, even when a biopsy is performed, determining whether treatment is warranted is a hazy decision in all but the most advanced cases.
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