Replies to post #14716 on Kiwa Bio-Tech Products Group Corp (fka KWBT)

[armour1955]

Agree! Agree! Agree!

[Mugsy]

This was a well thought out and very informative post. Thank you for sharing!

[Boot Hill]

Awesome post, my friend!!

[Stockz12345]

FACTS, nice post , also facts yes they diluting , yes they did not say they would increase A/S nor did they say they say they would not , you have to make that assumption for your self, the payment structure 3-9 months to see revenue from farmers and having to front millions for the product also played a role in this going down and put them in a cash crunch, again u have to make your assumption of why they simply. Pups by just pay it off,
Mine is management like every other company reaped the rewards of shareholders
At the top, now they buying up all shares from note holder dumping , or note holder dumped so much and has shares as well and will reap the rewards as well, the fact that China in every report saying they need to decreaSe the chemical fertilizer in 2020 by 20% and Chinese government giving Kiwa grants for facility build($500,000) over 3 years I do believe ) and the fact they are in a tremendous market that’s growing massively ,20 billion market share up for grabs by 2023 reports say and forecasted to make 65million from expansion,
As I said before unless all theE facts are direct lies and none of this is happening for the company then I think this is a good bet, all IMO and number may not be exact and rounded

[ximon]

KWBT! Your post should be stickied! Very good! Thanks xi

[02opida]

Agriculture is large world wide thanks for sharing

[Renegades17]

Valuation

Share count is obviously the big unknown with respect to valuation, but I would also expand the valuation analysis to look at profitability. This company is generating very attractive EBIT margins (almost ~17% in the most recent quarter), which are significantly higher than comps such as Mosaic.

I did some back of the envelope math that also supports a much higher stock price.

- 2020 revenue of $50mm (~25% revenue growth versus 42% in the MRQ)
- 17% EBIT margin (could be conservative given there should be some fixed cost leverage)
- $8.5mm in 2020 EBIT (operating income after D&A)

Applying an 8x multiple (similar to Mosaic despite much stronger growth and margins) equals a $68mm enterprise value. Subtract out ~$3mm in debt leads to a $65mm equity market cap. Assuming 200mm shares leads to a $0.325/share stock price.

The key catalyst is obviously cleaning up the capital structure to get rid of, or at least minimize, VCD.

[edwardport]

obviously you are not an analyst!

have you ever heard of EBITDA? trading multiples on a stock are based earnings per share

if you read kwbt filings, the company has no earnings to speak of

i only see dilution. NO EARNINGS