Chicago-Paul
I'm not buying the "Just have patience" this is a long-term play argument.
"Patience" with ACB has only resulted in LOSSES for ACB Longs.
[again, patience on whose timeline?]
The Longs have been "patiently" watching ACB tick lower for almost a year now.
[I totally agree, that right now would be MUCH BETTER entry point, than a year ago]
ACB Retail Investors are starting to learn how the game is really played and they are starting to be upset about it.
[Retail drives this stock’s PRICE (not to be confused with its value). I don’t remember the exact number, but I believe retail is like 89% and institutions 11% or some approximation of that ratio. With retail, comes emotions, and most investors don’t always think rationally when it comes to the market. People are euphoric at the top of a cycle, and truly despondent at the bottom. And that’s what stocks do, they cycle, they breathe. We all know the whole industry got ahead of itself, mostly due to the Provinces trying to figure out (and agree to) a process for distribution that was fair and equitable. NEWS FLASH: They’re STILL not there yet. They’re working on it…again, patience is needed. This is like the end of Prohibition in the 1920’s, at first there were thousands of companies trying to sell grain alcohol legally. Over time though, the smaller players got swallowed up through acquisition, or put out of business completely through bankruptcy. After a few decades only a HANDFUL of POWERFUL companies remained. The same will happen with this industry. And for all those naysayers (shorts) who blather on about an overabundance of weed and people being able to grown their own, and how a few city blocks can grow enough weed for every man, woman, and child in the USA, my answer to that is what some brilliant debater on this board pointed out the other day…PEOPLE PAY MONEY FOR BOTTLED TAP WATER. Something they could get for virtually free out of their own faucets.
Thus, the Shareholder Law Suits.
[Ambulance chasers. Has happened with Starbucks, Microsoft, Nvidia, HP…pretty much every publicly traded company ever…]
I mean, if you were a new investor today and someone told you that a company was trading with a $2 Billion Dollar Market Cap that only had approximately $350 Million in Revenues and about 8 Law Firms suing them for misleading investors - would you invest in ACB?
[If you graph out by quarter their Revenues and Cost of Goods Sold, you will see the two lines are quickly diverging with revenues hugely outpacing expenses. They’ve already built out more than enough (easily scalable) capacity.
They recognized (perhaps a little too late) there was a very serious problem with getting enough stores up and running, particularly in Ontario, and they were going to have to quickly re-adjust course until the “stores bottle-neck” could be sorted out.
They quickly implemented cost cutting measures that would save them approximately $200 million in expenses in the short term. Regarding the Ontario stores shortage, there’s been reporting that as many as 40 new stores per month is the target for 2020. If they even get half that many Aurora’s revenues are going to go up. We haven’t even gotten any DERIVATIVES on the books yet, and people are already cashing out and wanting to vandalize Aurora greenhouses. Come on folks…relax. We haven’t even gotten to the fun part yet! Third quarter will start to reveal a peek into their new world of derivatives revenue, and after that I expect we may see new deals made, and greenhouses becoming un-shuttered, and things will REALLY get fun then.
People Lie. Numbers don’t.
I’ve graphed this stuff out, and see the longterm TREND. I don’t believe the hype, and I don’t sweat the quarter by quarter stuff. I synthesize it, and weigh the good vs. the bad (we should all be doing this if we’re investing our hard earned money here)… and yes, there ARE some bad things too. I’m not in love with Aurora. The not getting it right in Germany part was a HUGE BLUNDER. They f’ed up. It should have been caught beforehand. Hopefully they’ve LEARNED from some of their mistakes…btw, any successful person got their by taking risks, and making mistakes.
The TREND is up over time. The company has been doing the right things (most of the time) and the wrong things occasionally too.]
At the end of last quarter Aurora had $588 BILLION in quick assets. They aren’t going into bankruptcy anytime soon. They have better access to non-dilutive capital than most other cannabis companies, and they’re only going to get stronger. And once they are throwing off enough free cash flow they’re going to start scooping up some of the smaller fish again. Hopefully this time they won’t GROSSLY overpay for them.]
Heck no. [Heck YES]
ACB lost 85% of its Market Value last year.
[Retail investors are emotional, and make bad decisions like mortgaging their house at the peak, and jumping out of windows at the bottom.]
Why do you think there are so many shorters here right now? It’s like shooting fish in a barrel.
On up days it gets so quiet on this board you can hear a pin drop. On down days this message board LIGHTS UP with posts bashing Cam, and claiming Aurora is going bankrupt, or how the whole industry will not succeed because you can grow weed for free in your back yard. It’s all just YOU, BEING PLAYED by the shorters. Pickpocketed.
I think we’re about to turn though with the stock price, and I get the sense they’re starting to worry a little. Right now there is a struggle going on between the longs and the shorts. It might be driven down further still from here, but it sure as HELL isn’t going to $0.00 and If we didn’t bottom at $1.50 then it won’t be going too much lower before the shorts will be overpowered by the longs.
Never forget, this is largely a RETAIL stock.
Investors would have been better buying a boat, or a nice new corvette, or going on a really nice vacation - instead of losing their money on ACB.
[If they didn’t sell their shares, they didn’t lose a dime]
It’s all about understanding the NUMBERS and ignoring the YAPPERS.
And patience.
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