The common theme though is that bacteria plays a role with Alzheimer's. Anavex believes this bacteria originates in the gut, while this new company believes it originates in the mouth.
I don't know if this is an orchestrated pump or money grab. It's possible. But what the CEO of CTRX did well was go out and immediately secure funding to advance through a P3 trial. It has positive data, it took that data to Pfizer and Takeda and Sequoia and others and now it's able to easily complete its P2/3 500+ person trial. Investors don't have to worry about ATM offerings with suspect firms like Lincoln Park, or $250M shelf registrations, and that provides a degree of stability that Anavex has never had.
The other advantage is that CRTX now has built-in partnerships if the drug does prove effective. One of those two firms will end up buying the company and investors are comforted by that, too. So from a purely financial perspective, CRTX seems like a safer bet -- if I'm an investor who isn't familiar with the Alzheimer's space, I'd feel more comfortable putting my money with Pfizer and Takeda and Sequoia than with Lincoln Park.
It remains to be seen if this is another AXON. I do think CRTX is very overpriced at the present value with the present info available, but someone is taking a very large stake in this and traders are adding fuel to the fire. As for AVXL, it's not necessarily zero-sum: both drugs can be effective and approved. But if there are several simultaneous advancements in Alzheimer's research it will certainly have a dampening effect on the valuations as opposed to if one company single-handedly comes up with the next big treatment.
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