Replies to post #256304 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[kabunushi]

They are already ready for the production of vax-l and can easily expand in modular increments. The thing is, they don't need a marketing team to sell this. So they don't need to partner with BP to get that. Hopefully, the work on the SAP has pushed them most of the way to where they need to get with the RAs for the applications for marketing approval. If that's the case I'm not sure what they need from a BP guy in terms of help with regulatory affairs.

They sure do need more capital. We'll see soon enough how much they raise themselves or if they go to BP partnership for that reason. The one big problem I see is that LP after working on this for years is hardly going to want to sell Direct for much less than she thinks it's worth as a possible franchise for treating all solid tumors, while I don't think BP is going to be willing to pay a large premium for Direct at this stage.

A partnership with any BP putting up a large amount of cash even if not in the billions would certainly boost investor confidence. It would be very nice if LP could at least swing a right-sized deal even if it doesn't involve selling the whole company at this point. It remains to be seen, all speculation at this point of course. I'm sure that LP is a very hard-nosed negotiator but does she really want to carry full responsibility for a few more years? My guess is that she probably is and has the confidence that she'll get more for NWBO a few years down the road than BP is willing to offer here. Just for a guess.

[skitahoe]

If you're speaking of $2 to $5 billion in a buyout, I believe it would be a bargain unless further testing proves that DCVax-L and Direct only work in GBM, and they still have a long way to go before approval.

I wish I were more technically knowledgeable about what we hold, but I'm not, but best I can tell, our vaccines have been tried, and anecdotally succeeded in cancers beyond GBM. Certainly it may not work in every cancer, but what if instead of just GBM it also works in one other, or two others, or three others. The point is, we don't know, but would you sell off the company without having any indication of what the vaccine may do beyond GBM.

I'd like to see a partnership, and I believe such a partnership could bring in hundreds of millions if they don't take an equity position, perhaps a billion or more if they do. Without taking an equity position in the company, they might have say a 35% interest in DCVax-L alone. In some cases I've seen a company partner where they took say a 30% interest in a specific drug, as well as a 30% interest in the company. If a billion dollars was earned from sales of the drug, 30% would go directly to them as they own 30% of it, in addition their net worth would reflect what happened to the stock with $700 million in earnings. In some cases I believe that such a partnership can actually be more lucrative than acquiring the company because the increase in share price of the independent biotech may very well be greater than all the earnings from product sales. I should note that if you do own 30% of a company you essentially have control of it as it's almost impossible to defeat you in a voting situation.

Gary