Replies to post #230899 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[NickHous]

Are you a shrimp boat captain? I see you post on SHMP. Couldn't resist the humor. IMO, yes AMRN is right for you. EPA is good for crows. Better than shrimp. You'll have to read up on the Red-It trial. AMRN is on cusp of FDA sNDA label expansion tentatively scheduled for/before 12/28/2019. Adcom vote for label expansion was 16-0 in favor on Nov 14th. Large short interest at the moment with potential squeeze on expanded label. Has been some up and downs and a lot of history with this company over the years, and it's goal to bring Vascepa to the masses for CVD prevention (current label is for high triglycerides). Good luck in your research!

[Lemmiwinks]

Ps...on this board...CHERRY is a study...not a poster. And the WSJ article that will be written is for real..(either mega drug poney going it alone or more likely AMRN aqcuired by Pfizer or GILD).......Did a little shrimping in my time. Remember you from that past life......AMRN is the real deal. Ya can bank on it. Good luck. And it’s not even close to too late....but we already have a Captain and a Mrs. Captain....his message is AMRN good...Beer good....repeats it every Friday.
Just read Re-ducit article and review the ADCOM panel transcript from 11/14/19....the Jeffries report on AMRN by Jeff Yee is what I believe is closest to the truth among all the analysts reports albeit....very conservative on its peak sales projection. Ya read these three things....you will be up to speed. Right now we all waiting on the PDUFA label....anytime between now and 12/28/19. Plus health Canada before the end of December.

AMRN appears to be posting for the 400 more sales reps in US wich could be a go it alone play or a negotiating tactic for the BO. Many believe a tender offer is being discussed....just contingent on the expanded label so peak sales can be estimated....it’s wide open still....but I’m banking on $45 share either way...just the GIA is gonna be slower. Lastly there is a likely generic patent trial for January....could get settlement news in mid December or trial in January. So far looks to be strongly in AMRNs favor either way but settlement would be nicer as long as a buy out....trial win better for GIA....My prediction is wide label and $55/share BO. Others have other feelings. Again....if ya pull the trigger, good luck to you and welcome aboard.
Lemmi-

Also, there some really sharp dudes and duddettes on this board....both bears and bulls. Excellent reading all around. Enjoy.

[couldbebetter]

crowin, So far two excellent replies to your question. My two cents:

Anyone buying AMRN in the low 20's have a good shot at a takeout offer
being accepted over the next few months as the takeover window will be
fully open once the new expanded label is known and a settlement agree-
ment with the generics are reached (which is common practice and expected.)

At a minimum, a takeout might make AMRN a double or triple from here...
Maybe more if a bidding war transpires. The market for Vascepa in Europe
is much larger than the US and will be free of generics for at least 11
years after the date of approval. Any BP with massive operations in
Europe should see the enormous potential there. PFE, AMGN, and JNJ all
have large distribution in Europe. Certainly, Sanofi, Astra-Zenica,
Novartis, Merck, and Roche should all be interested in Vascepa. If
AMRN selects a distribution agreement for Europe, then a takeover is
much less likely. My speculation is that this market is potentially
to lucrative for BP to consider anything except a takeout.

Vasceoa has a NNT (number needed to treat) of "6." That means for every
6 patients taking Vascepa over 5 years one serious Cardiovascular event
will be prevented. THAT's MASSIVE! So if a patient population using
Vascepa is 6 million, some 1 million events would be prevented over
a 5 year period.