crowin, So far two excellent replies to your question. My two cents:
Anyone buying AMRN in the low 20's have a good shot at a takeout offer
being accepted over the next few months as the takeover window will be
fully open once the new expanded label is known and a settlement agree-
ment with the generics are reached (which is common practice and expected.)
At a minimum, a takeout might make AMRN a double or triple from here...
Maybe more if a bidding war transpires. The market for Vascepa in Europe
is much larger than the US and will be free of generics for at least 11
years after the date of approval. Any BP with massive operations in
Europe should see the enormous potential there. PFE, AMGN, and JNJ all
have large distribution in Europe. Certainly, Sanofi, Astra-Zenica,
Novartis, Merck, and Roche should all be interested in Vascepa. If
AMRN selects a distribution agreement for Europe, then a takeover is
much less likely. My speculation is that this market is potentially
to lucrative for BP to consider anything except a takeout.
Vasceoa has a NNT (number needed to treat) of "6." That means for every
6 patients taking Vascepa over 5 years one serious Cardiovascular event
will be prevented. THAT's MASSIVE! So if a patient population using
Vascepa is 6 million, some 1 million events would be prevented over
a 5 year period.