MDCO was a steady gainer over the last year. By all normal measures of
value, MDCO looked like a real dog. AMRN, by comparison looks like
a champion with virtually no debt, over $600 million in cash, and at
the cusp of actual earnings. Yet, it was MDCO that behaved like a champ,
despite the high short interest. It is confounding to me that AMRN,
a stock that looks like an obvious takeout play, would have short sellers
so aggressive in the stock. By all measures once the label expansion is
official AMRN should stay at a higher price level.
MDCO received $9.7 billion and won't have its CVOT results until 2024.
By any comparison AMRN should be worth 2-3X the value of MDCO...$20-$30
billion or $47-$73 a share. Then again if a serious bidding war takes
place, who knows what the takeout value would end up.
Some possible contenders for AMRN, such as AMGN, have seen a large
increase in their market caps. I think a stock and/or cash deal
would be welcome by AMRN shareholders. Given JNJ's issues, yet a
relatively strong market cap if they would consider a takeout...Vascepa
is safe product that won't come back to bite them.
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