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Replies to post #2419 on Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
12/07/19 9:46 AM
THE IMMEDIATE ANALYTICAL STANCE AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Dec. 6, 2019: NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 146510 and is trading up about 14% for the year from last year's closing of 128130. Factually, this market is currently trading below last month's closeand it had been weak for the past 3 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 147270, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in December is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level.
Up to this moment in time, the market remains bearish on our momentum indicator yet neutral on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend is neutral and our cyclical strength is bearish.
The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 7 years. The correction since that high has been a 54% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 42321 and a closing below this area would technically warn that this market is indeed in meltdown mode. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 40% which has been a respectable recovery to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 7 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 104540. Since last year did exceed the previous high
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 157594 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 131000 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.
Looking at our timing models, it is possible to witness a turning point come this month in NY Gold Nearest Futures. Therefore, remember to watch for this possible development at the time. The last cyclical event was a low established back during November. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, the market has been neutral for right now, so caution is advisable and look more closely at the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 144620 but closed on the weak side and so far, we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 151900 to 144620. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline.
Critical support still underlies this market at 126780 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position. Overall on a broader basis, looking at the monthly level on our models, this market is currently in a rising trend. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 15 months. The previous low of 116270 made during August 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 146500 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during September on the Monthly level at 156620 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.
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