Hardly. I have a discounted cash flow model that supports a $50 buyout assuming $7.5bn peak sales (2020 dollars), 2% annual price inflation, a sliding scale of net margins as sales go up, and a 7% discount rate on future profits -- also assumes a marginal tax rate of 25% (which is reasonable blending US and Ireland, and noting the loss carryforward).
Once the FDA label is out, this thing is hugely derisked, and that discount rate is reasonable especially considering where risk free rates are right now.
Note I'm not in the $100 camp... love thinking about that, but trying to be sober about all this.
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