Replies to post #227287 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[venus537]

Perhaps you're right that BP will be unwilling to pay more than $35-40 despite the huge sales potential but I don't see Amarin/share holders excepting such an offer and they would rather go the GIA route.

[dmiller]

I'm convinced that you don't know a thing about valuing a company, especially a biotech. Look at the lifetime sales of Lipitor. Many are saying this could be another Lipitor. Vascepa will be a game changer and the new standard of care for cardiac and diabetes patients, not to mention any primary care revs. Vascepa at half of Lipitors sales is worth a hell of a lot more than 35-40 to big pharma.

All - thank you for chiming in! Your points are well taken. This is a a-bottle-half-full situation, IMO. Many of you are looking at the full part and I am looking at the empty part. Don't think I am alone. Just look at the sp.

Obviously I agree with everyone on the sales/market potential of Vascepa. If not, I wouldn't be a shareholder for so long.

However since I am a hardcore AMRN BO advocate, I want to exam the asset part of the company. What does an acquirer get for its money?

For a typical biopharma BO target, the buyer gets R&D, patents, manufacturing, products and their revenue, salesforce, channels, partnerships, management team, etc.

For AMRN, the buyer gets patents, product (singular) and its revenue, salesforce, channels, partnerships, and management team, etc.

See what's missing here? R&D, manufacturing. Basically, the buyer are buying a bunch of paperwork - patents, supplier contracts, and labeling, which are the core assets of this company. The others are not as important if a BP is already selling statin. Don't take me wrong - these are valuable assets. But are they worth $15B or more??

AMRN is unique in the sense that AMRN does not own or make EPA, the molecule, instead it only owns the labeling and the commercial rights of selling it as a Rx drug for the indications in the label hopefully globally soon.

This is similar to co-op vs. condo. Do you want to pay a condo price for a co-op?

[oneragman]

Will, I am not going to get into a lot of hypotheticals. I will say you seem to discount the billons in profits that definitely will be generated a year. Depending on whose sales estimates you believe, that could be in one year. It's all about profits. The rest is a bunch of depreciating assets.

[Chas42va]

Wil Lar

If AMRN does not R&D and manufacturing ( as you say - I do not know) that is actually a BIG PLUS (good thing versus a negative) because big Pharma already has R&D and manufacturing so there’s no need to pay for that as they can use their own.

Consequently, This should enhance the number of companies who are interested in buying AMRN thus creating a lively market place for our suitors

[Mr1979]

Wil

Some fatal flaws to your line of thinking. You mention the R and D aspect (Amarin currently has R and D ongoing for AMR101 in various multiple indications
Furthermore, with respect to the one drug issue, it is irrelevant. The valuation is all about how much revenue an acquiring company can get in the BO. Would a company rather buy a 10 drug pipeline with anticipated revenue of 2$biliion per year or the one drug company with anticipated revenue of 5$billion?

Your logic suggests that the acquirers would say Only one drug!? No way Jose. We want 10 drugs worth less in the marketplace. Nonsense!