It does seem that every quarter they scramble around for a new story/product/strategy on why this next time is it.
I remain very skeptical myself that there is a huge market for a $30k plus hybrid residential power system. Never mind their ability to market and sell it. And if that’s what they are hanging their hat on?
I really hope they get these tier 1 back on the next couple months plus they announce they closed an international contract somewhere. Hopefully that gets this to pop, and then I’m probably selling most of the position if not all.
So what exactly is the downside risk now at $2.25?
It’s below book value. And applying a 15 P/E ratio to forward earnings it assumes no more 3-4 cents per quarter over the next year.
We can’t totally dismiss the possibility of them going belly up. But if the orders come in and they start doing even 9-10 million a quarter next year, that probably translates into 7-8 cents per share at least and this easily doubles from current share price.
As if they did hit the 12-15 mil target sometime next year?
This is priced for utter failure right now. Which given their track record, does make some sense.
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