I currently predict that the vote could go either way.
My prediction recently decreased because REDUCE-IT is weak regarding benefits in subpopulations, and yet, it has been brought up twice in just the last week: in the 10-Q (hyperlink) and Grand Rounds (hyperlink). This makes me suspicious that the sNDA includes language for primary prevention, in which case it might go badly for Amarin if the voting question revolves around approving Vascepa for a population that showed only a modest benefit.
Kiwi's example of ezetimibe is an excellent model of how Amarin's AdCom could go due to some eerie similarities (underlined text are hyperlinks):
Icosapent ethyl (Vascepa) Approved label: Dyslipidemia Cardiovascular outcome trial: REDUCE-IT RRR of cardiovascular outcomes: 12% sNDA for cardiovascular outcomes: 2019 Advisory committee: November 2019 Question: "Do the efficacy and safety data from the REDUCE-IT trial provide substantial evidence to support approval of a claim that adding icosapent ethyl to statin therapy reduces the risk of cardiovascular events in patients with diabetes mellitus and at least one additional risk factor?" (PROPOSED) Vote: TBD Rationale: TBD CRL: TBD