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Replies to post #2399 on Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
11/16/19 11:14 AM
OUR ANALYTICAL OUTLOOK AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Nov. 15, 2019: NY Gold Nearest Futures closed today at 146850 and is trading up about 14% for the year from last year's closing of 128130. At present, this market has been declining for 2 months. This price action here in November is warning that we may have at least a temporary high in place beginning perhaps a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level if we see lower prices next month or close lower. Otherwise, there remains the potential for a one-month Knee-Jerk reaction low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking under the previous month's low dropping to 144620 intraday yet it is trading at least below last month's close of 151480.
At the moment, the market remains bullish on the momentum indicator yet neutral on the short-term trend indicator while the long-term trend and cyclical strength are bearish.
The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 7 years. The correction since that high has been a 54% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 42321 and a closing below this area would technically warn that this market is indeed in meltdown mode. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 40% which has been a respectable recovery to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating since the high established during 2011 for the past 7 years with a subsequent low established during 2015 at 104540. Since last year did exceed the previous high
Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 157594 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Nevertheless, our technical support lies at 131000 which is still holding at this time. At this moment, the market remains between these two projections leaving it neutral on a technical basis.
A possible change in trend appears due come December in NY Gold Nearest Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a low established back during October. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a reaction high. However, thus far, this market has already broken that previous low established at 146500. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bearish overall. Last month produced a low at 146500 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have broken beneath last month's low 146500 closing yesterday at 146850. We now need to close below 140630 on a monthly basis to imply a continued decline is possible.
Critical support still underlies this market at 126780 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 14 months. The previous low of 116270 made during August 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 147050 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during September on the Monthly level at 156620 remains significant technically and only exceeding that level on a closing basis would suggest a reversal in the immediate trend. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.
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