Replies to post #220854 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[relocatedmetsfan]

concapk - "Yes the MM's will try to manipulate the stock"

The Amarin stock price closed within $.20 of the max pain on the monthly expiration date for the last three months (Aug, Sept, and Oct). There were also a few other times within the past two years where the share price magically did the same thing at closing bell of a monthly expiration date. So yes, I agree with this.


"with 400 million shares out there"

Total outstanding shares is closer to 350MM, but I'm splitting hairs.


"it will take 1 mil. contracts to take control"

Depending on the order book for AMRN on any given day, someone could short sell 50K-200K shares to immediately drop the share price $1. If someone feels that they can benefit more by temporarily dropping the share price $1, they will do it.

The daily volume has been low the past few weeks, and will most likely continue down that path up until the release of the AdCom briefing documents. This will make it easier for someone to manipulate the stock price ahead of the AdCom.


"This ADCOM result will drive the market up or down accordingly"

Although a positive (or negative) vote by the AdCom members will move the share price some, it is not a final approval (nor issuance of a CRL) from the FDA. The market will account for that.


"how can FDA with positive ADCOM not approve this drug"

How can the FDA rescind a SPA? But they did. And with impunity, to boot.

Look what they did with SRPT a few months ago...a CRL for their DMD medication released on the PDUFA date based on issues that existed from the day the NDA was submitted and that the FDA had not mentioned at all during discussions with Sarepta ("out of left field" I believe was the exact wording that the Sarepta CEO used). The FDA even went as far as to complete label negotiations with Sarepta.

My take is that the FDA will do what the FDA wants to do, on the timeline that the FDA wants to do it, and they will find a reasoning to do so that somehow fits within their codified regulations.


"we're talking at least a $10.00 swing on Nov.15"

You'd profit nicely from a long options straddle if you truly believe that will happen.

My take is that the swing will not be as dramatic and will be spaced out between the release of the briefing documents, the AdCom meeting, and the eventual approval (or issuance of a CRL).

I also think that, if the expanded label for Vascepa is approved, the MMs will try to hold the share price down (~$20) for as long as they can (at least thru 17 January) until buyout rumors start swirling.