Replies to post #219323 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Sam81]

Our DCF assumes an 11% WACC, consistent with our valuation of other biopharma companies in a similar stage of clinical development with an upcoming commercial launch,

That says it all....clinical development and upcoming commercial launch and that is not the case

[moonotaur]

Interesting nuggets:

Expect Peak sales > $3B (2030e)
M&A value = $24/share (haha)

[moonotaur]

“Over the past 10 years, SMID cap biotechnology companies have been acquired at an average of 11x EV/sales relative to the third or fourth year of sales following the launch of a company’s key asset (see Exhibit 18). In order to derive our theoretical M&A value for AMRN, we have applied this multiple to our estimate for the company’s 2022E Vascepa sales, which would be the third year following a potential launch in the REDUCE-IT indication. Applying this multiple to AMRN’s 2022 Vascepa sales and discounting it back to the present based on an 11% discount factor (in line with our DCF analysis), we derive an M&A value of $24”

Based on current trajectory alone (80% YoY growth) that gets revs to $2.3B and this growth is without the label...

So if AMRN can demonstrate they will be able to maintain current growth ONLY, this should get taken out for $60...