Replies to post #218355 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[boozeman]

Absolutely sick about our share price depression. Just doesn’t seem right, I think about manipulation, short interest, what am I not seeing. FUD is coursing thru my veins. I think I need to shut off the computer for the month of October. Good luck all.

[JJPow]

Sstyles same thoughts- trying to scare the retail out of the way. They are running out of time, however- hang tight.

[bfost]

Sstyles - feels the same as it did before Sept 24 2018 and we know how that turned out. We were right and WS was wrong.

I am infinitely more confident in the outcome of the ADCOM compared to the RI trial. In my mind this is almost totally de-risked and there is significant upside as WS is giving a >25% chance of an ADCOM rejection.

Asymmetric risk as JL taught us! Maintain patience or buy if not fully invested IMO.

[jmhill23]

I'm surprised where the price currently is though it seems that most biopharms have dropped recently. I've actually added a little to my position as I feel there is value at these levels.

For those expecting the price to explode upward immediately after Adcom, I would caution to temper expectations. You need not look any further that the recent AIMT adcom. Immediately after the positive vote the message boards were full of posters exclaiming price would shoot from $23 to $40. The stock traded down the next day.

I know AMRN is very different than AIMT however the reality is the current market cap is sitting at 5 billion dollars at current share price. The company is forecast to have revenue of 420 million(high end) and negative earnings. As the revenues and earnings continue to rise so goes the share price especially if the growth exceeds expectations. I expect a steady rise in share price throughout 2020 with a modest bump post adcom approval.

IMHO

[Whalatane]

sstyles ...the shorts are banking on the following opinions IMHO

to quote some one who obviously never went to business school..... once again

" Did you read Burn Sanderson....Looks like Amarin may be forced to consider lowering their profit margins further if they want the VA and other third parties to pay for the drug.... "

NO. Amarin does not need and will not be forced to lower their profit margins .
The VA will pay at least the current WAC of $1,600 a yr BECAUSE they will save a ton of money by doing that with all their R-IT profile patients on it .

Save money ?...How ?...by less ER visits, Less Cath Lab expense , Fewer revascularisations etc etc .
Amarin could double the WAC price for R-IT profile patients and the VA would STILL save money.

This is not to say that AMRN won't go lower pre Adcom .
All politicians currently hate drug manufacturers ....E Warren wants to control them , Trump think the BP exec's are out to get him .
If there's no trade deal that stops Tarrifs from increasing ...market will tank and take AMRN with it .
JMO
Kiwi

[tmac20]

Oh the glory days - remember the runup we had prior to the trial results? Now that was an impressive runup - wait, what? Oh yea, there was no runup at all so why should this be any different? It won't, Wall St. is too focused on glomming onto the stock du jours and IPOs that keep coming out. For the most part, they rely on trading algorithms and don't have the time or dedication to actually go out and research stocks. I predict we tread water until the AdCom and even with a positive AdCom it will ramp slowly. It may take a couple quarters for Amarin to explode the sales but one thing is for sure - they have made the investment in 800 repeat 800! sales reps to cover these doctors like Russian radiation once the label gets expanded. I would even say that if the AdCom goes south and they don't get the label this stock is still a buy at 14 bucks. They could easily turn a decent profit without label expansion. And then comes the dividends - I digress …..