Replies to post #213700 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Investor2014]

With longer trials it could be argued that natural history statistics can replace an actual placebo arm as the comparison to drug activity.

I suspect Missling wants to use the ATTENTION-AD extension study (alongside the much small P2a longitudinal extension) to achieve provisional approval at the earliest regulators can be convinced.

Same idea for PPD and Rett. Just a question of whether that game plan works out prior to having to launch a P3 to get on with the business.

[Steady_T]

The simplest answer is that to use your statistics the trail would need to run for at least 4 years.

The present trials are scheduled to be considerably shorter than that. Also Anavex is selecting trial subjects a that are in the earlier stages of AD.

Then there is the issue with your statistic as shown below.

Life expectancy varies for each person with AD. The average life expectancy after diagnosis is eight to 10 years. In some cases, however, it can be as short as three years or as long as 20 years.
Life Expectancy and Long-Term Outlook for Alzheimer's Disease
https://www.healthline.com › health › alzheimers-disease › life-expectancy

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov › pubmed
by R Brookmeyer - ?2002 - ?Cited by 340 - ?Related articles
Survival following a diagnosis of Alzheimer disease. ... The median survival times ranged from 8.3 years for persons diagnosed as having AD at age 65 years to 3.4 years for persons diagnosed as having AD at age 90 years.