Replies to post #245200 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[exwannabe]

Chris said that ...

That ends most conversations.

[erik007tc]

Very nice and very Like ;)

[maverick_1]

We will take that sensible LIGHTING BOLT along with AngeloFoca's BOLD RETURN as a TARGET to be REALIZED vs ALL the vicissitudeS of FRUITLESS pandering here since 2015!

:Chris said that LP told him (in effect) that she wouldn’t take anything less than $21 billion... he said they were talking about a $7 billion buyout of another company and he asked would she take that... her reply (as l recall) was ‘maybe three times that ‘... so l doubt she would consider $5 pps AND that coincides with her ‘go big or go home ‘ mantra... take it for what it’s worth to you...

The way I remember this is that the figure mentioned was $8 billion as opposed to $7 billion - thereby making her acceptable level $24 billion.

I have a dream - It's 95% likely just wishful thinking - but I am hoping that the lack of communication specifically regarding the manufacturing of Dc Vax L is actually a "quiet period" that NWBO has entered into due to negotiations for a buyout of the DC Vax L platform and perhaps "right of first refusal" for the DC Vax Direct platform down the road.

If they were to tell you that the technology for "L" manufacturing had been transferred to Merck... what would that shout out???

My dream is that all negotiations have been finalized and the only thing remaining is the buyout "price" - which is dependent on results once trial has been unblinded although guidelines are already set at say $5 billion with mediocre... but approvable results, $7.5 billion with favorable results, and $10 billion for stellar results... + 20% royalties + $2 billion for "right of first refusal" on DC Vax Direct.

So that one morning we wake up to news that the SAP has been submitted and accepted, AND that the trial has been unblinded and results are stellar, AND an offer has been made and accepted needing only shareholder's approval to be carved in stone... catching the shorts stone cold.

[Kam8]

Nice post. thumb up

[hyperopia]

Why would there be communication regarding DCVax-L manufacturing? Cognate has a manufacturing and services agreement from 2014 that is still effective and includes the commercial manufacturing of DCVax-L. There could be negotiations regarding an amendment for commercial scale manufacturing perhaps. If Northwest was going to change their manufacturer, it would require bridging studies to ensure appropriate validation and equivalency, and the last time Northwest did a technology transfer with Fraunhofer, the process took close to 18 months. I understand that it’s just wishful thinking, but do you really think that this transfer would take place during negotiations? That Linda would just hand over her baby based on big pharma’s good faith negotiations? I doubt it. No, a deal would probably had to have been reached at least a year ago, and that would have been before results were known. Again, I doubt it . . . . but keep dreaming, it was entertaining.

DCVAX®-L MANUFACTURING AND SERVICES AGREEMENT
 
This Amended and Restated Services Agreement (this “Agreement”), originally dated April 1, 2011 is entered into, effective as of January 17, 2014 (the “Effective Date”), by and between Cognate BioServices, a Delaware corporation (Cognate”), and Northwest Biotherapeutics, a Delaware corporation (“NW Bio”).
 
6.1    Term
 
This Agreement will remain in force until the later of seven (7) years from the Effective Date (the “Term”) or five (5) years after the first commercial sales of DCVax®-L Products pursuant to a Biologics License Application or marketing authorization (not a compassionate use, hospital exemption or similar authorization), unless terminated earlier pursuant to Section 6.2.

6.2    Termination
 
Either party may terminate this Agreement in the event of a material breach by the other party which remains uncured after notice of such breach for a period of thirty (30) days in the case of a monetary breach, or a period of one hundred twenty (120) days in the case of a non-monetary breach that is material to the contract taken as a whole.
  

Confidential treatment required; certain information omitted and filed separately with the SEC.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1072379/000114420414031414/v377229_ex10-40.htm

[tryn2]

Hey Angelo:

Interesting... l remember $7 billion and you remember $8 billion.... you say potato and l say spud...:)
I truly remember $7 billion but I have no problem with your version of history. Either way I think we are in good hands with LP negotiating on our (and her) behalf...:)

[IkeEsq]

Why are people hoping for a buyout?

Legitimate question, not trying to be combative or belittle anyone, I just don't get it.

For NWBO, what is the advantage? At the ASM Linda Powers responded to a question about partnering with BP: "Most recently, as of about two years ago, you didn't have pharma . . . dealing with a living cell product requires an entirely different manufacturing facility, an entirely different supply chain and distribution chain. And big pharma didn't have any of that. So they didn't have anything to bring to the table except a checkbook. They didn't have any operational muscle to contribute. I think that is beginning to change." If NWBO already has what they need in place, mainly through Cognate, what does BP offer? If they announce favorable results and/or get approved, their stock price goes up and they can borrow additional money relatively cheaply in order to expand operations.

For BP, what is the advantage? BP is not in the business of personalized medicine, they are in the business of selling as many pills as possible with nebulous benefits and treating the side-effects of those pills with more pills. NWBO threatens their very lucrative cancer-barely-treatment market, which makes more than they are likely to make with DC-Vax. BP, in my mind, does not want to get DC-Vax, they want to bury it.

For investors, BP is not going to buy NWBO for what it is worth, then they would not make any money on it, unless they could rely on economies of scale to reduce costs and thus become more profitable than if NWBO went it alone. But if they really don't have the infrastructure in place and already working with other products, the economies of scale are not really there. We are better off with a reasonable valuation of NWBO with DC-Vax approved, I would think.

I can see if there is an issue that management of NWBO is not optimized for running a going concern as opposed to weathering the trial and approval process. I am just not sure that BP is likely to really push DC Vax until they are forced to by some competing technology. And I can see people wanting a guarantee, cash in hand. But getting that guarantee means to me that BP is convinced DC-Vax is going to be a serious threat to their market and if that is the case you already have a pretty good guarantee, right?

Like I said, I don't really understand the thinking. Maybe I am completely off-base and my assumptions are invalid, I am just curious what the thought-process is. I would be happy with a high buy-out offer because it would indicate some affirmation of the technology, I am just not sure I would want NWBO to be bought out at this point.

[tjluke65]

md1225 -who brought Bigger to the Table Sept - Oct 2017

Sunday, 02/03/19 10:05:57 AM
Re: sukus post# 212249 0
Post # 212269 of 245302

Valuation of the DCVax platform was a huge discussion in our hour long private investors meeting after the ASM. What I found interesting was my valuation was the lowest for were the intrinsic value would fall IF "positive topline" announced.

So we at this impromtu meeting including hedge fund owners, a billionaire, attorneys, esteemed PHd of John Hopkins and little ole me, 6 of us discuss...... Attending? Bigger, Powers,Powers Ex Hubby, Goldman, Rago - esteemed JH Phd? Anyone care to speculate?

Chris's valuation after positive data 3b max.

Folks rebuted me at nauseum "condescending smiles and all" on valuations of ALL the immunotherapy players. I was rebutted so much and so pationately "I actually didn't understand what my Phd friend was talking about I found myself daydreaming about surfing for 10 seconds, the man is intense in what he believes ... Anyway I was schooled on big pharma, little pharma, privately held boutique biotechs I never knew existed and their values based on sales and current valuations based on future potential market penetration etc..

The valuation I apparently was schooled on was an estimated value of DCVax "NWBO" 20b within days "IF" positive topline data..

The winning argument was "the market is forward looking" and the market knows IF you make history "moving the needle" and actually show an immunotherapy hallmark "long tail survival" in the deadliest hardest to treat solid tumor known to man....then the game has changed.

DCVax personalized cell therapy will be applicable to treat 80% of cancer indications.... Buyout valuation of company could make pharma acquisition history I was told.

One big hurdle folks get that indisputable history making data announced...

Chris LaCoursiere