Replies to post #214367 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[AVII77]

Here's the numbers again, Bongo Bongo Heads...

800,000 metric tons of global fish oil supply (800,000,000 kg)

13% of that is EPA

You can maybe (MAYBE) corner 10% of the global supply.

You need 4g x 365 to supply a patient for a year (1.46kg)

800,000,000 x 13% x 10% = 10,400,000 kg

10,400,000 / 1.46 = 7.123 million patients (about $10bn or so in revs)

MAYBE you can stretch that with heightened supply and greater market share capture to 10 million patients. MAYBE.

Interesting analysis.

Consider looking at it in a different light.

The price for a metric ton of fish oil in 2018 was $2000

That 1 metric ton (using your numbers) would produce enough V for 89 patients for a year.

That works out to $22 worth of fish oil per year for each patient.

That raw material cost is so minuscule compared to the $2400/year they get for selling V to a patient.

I guess my point is, there are many other users of fish oil who can't as easily afford a price increase. If the price of fish oil doubled to $4000/metric ton Amarins cost would only be $44/patient for a years worth of V.

If we want/need fish oil, we can buy it. And we can easily afford to pay more than the other users of fish oil.