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Replies to post #1743 on Silver Futures Index $SILVER (SILVER)
09/14/19 9:54 AM
CURRENTLY, OUR ANALYTICAL POSITION AS OF THE CLOSE OF Fri. Sep. 13, 2019: NY Silver COMEX Futures closed today at 175690 and is trading up about 13% for the year from last year's closing of 155400. At the moment, this market has been rising for this market has been rising for 3 months going into September reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. yet it is trading below last month's close of 183420.
As of now, the market remains bearish on the short-term levels of our indicators while the long-term trend is bearish and our cyclical strength is bullish.
The historical major high took place back in 2011 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 7 years. The correction since that high has been a 27% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 341765 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2015 and we have bounced some 28% which has been a reasonable rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted. This market on the yearly level has been consolidating and moving higher since the low established during 2015. However, we did elect 1 Bearish Reversal from the high formed on during 2016 which provided the decline into during 2018. Nonetheless, we have not elected any Bullish Reversals from the last low established during 2018.
A possible change in trend appears due come October in NY Silver COMEX Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during August. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, to date, this market has already exceeded that previous high established at 187600. This strongly implies we are in a cycle inversion process, which tends to be rather bullish overall. Last month produced a high at 187600 but closed on the positive side and so far, we have exceeded last month's high. We now need to close above 187600 on a monthly basis to imply a further advance to the upside immediately for now.
Critical support still underlies this market at 162240 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 9 months. The previous low of 138600 made during November 2018 on the Monthly level has held and only a break of 149150 on a closing basis would warn of a technical near-term change in trend. The previous high made during August on the Monthly level at 187600 has now been exceeded in the recent rally. We have generated a buy signal so some caution is required.
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