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IgnoranceIsBliss

09/05/19 11:47 AM

#212771 RE: Atom0aks #212768

It depends on how you measure the impact of the delay. It isn't like the population just magically catches up after 3 months... the whole uptake is delayed.

Let's assume the first 3 months causes a 1,000,000 to be delayed 3 months... then the next three months there's a 100,000 catchup, so that after 10 quarters we get back to where we would have gotten anyhow (same covered after 10 quarters regardless of approval date).

That creates a triangle of delays that adds to 5.5 million delayed 3 months. That would result in ~367 x 5.5 = ~2,000 deaths.
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rafunrafun

09/05/19 11:50 AM

#212773 RE: Atom0aks #212768

A - Are you being for real with:

4.8% is small for me. And as Bus pointed out, even with a generous estimate of 1,000,000, the number of deaths he predicted is only a few hundred (few hundred < "killing thousands")


If you call hundreds of DEATHS and thousands of CV events: only, then I have don't have anything else to add.

You made your point (here and on Twitter) and I made mine. The evidence speaks for itself and readers are free opine.