dividend would be of shares listed in Hong Kong, eh? any thoughts about the pictures tonight on the internet that are showing mainland China arming and reinforcing troops in Hong Kong, arresting "leaders" of anti-Mainland efforts, and flight of people and capital (talent and markets) from Hong Kong as a factor?
I am thinking the wait on the dividend in shares of Tri-Way is delay risk, maybe in years. The shares in Tri-Way are a big deal to the long suffering shareholders in SIAF, but, the unimaginable pain of having ended expectations for cash dividend payouts is the open wound that anyone long has to be nursing. Any reason to stay under these conditions as a long investor?
Luckily, fish demand ought to be good. Mainland China has had more than 50% price increase in pork in last year, nearly 20% in recent weeks. Restaurants are anxiously seeking pork alternatives? Chicken seems to have won most of that opportunity so far. Only protein not climbing in price so far is, as luck would have it, fish. But, at least the eggs of the tenants should be higher profit, and, of course, any remaining cattle and feed operations ought to be doing well, right?
If I don't offend too many here, I am going to put out my guess that SIAF is not going to see much favorable news for about two years for the financial, legal, political and social cross-currents preventing any wins for investors. Trading range might be as extreme as between .05 and .30 but for most of that time frame I am expecting between .11 and .19 with extremely low volumes of shares being traded. I will probably stay long and maybe add when prices fall and volume increases, but I am not expecting much in the way of opportunities.
The "story" is still attractive for fish at higher productivity with fewer risks from contaminants. That story is the one that migrated to Tri-Way but might logically and financially wind up consolidating back into SIAF, right?
The "story" for CA to provide engineering for more fish farms might be compelling if not for the history of work going unpaid, right?
What is disappointing investors in China seems insurmountably painful right now.
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