dan, Appreciate your views. Keep in mind that Europe will either have
to be partnered or result in a buyout of AMRN. There is no way that
AMRN will be able to GIA in Europe as each country must be negotiated
separately after EMA approval likely to come in late 2020. If a
European BP wanted to own Europe they would have to either partner or
buy AMRN in early 2020 to give enough time to be ready for an early
2021 launch.
My opinion is that only with a buyout or partnership will the US
be able to optimize sales. Of course AMRN has to appear it is GIA
just in case the deal JT and BOD want does not materialize. How badly
does BP need AMRN once it becomes evident that US revenues will peak
at least around $10 billion. Just get 5 million patients on Vascepa
and by that time the amount of revenues AMRN receives should be over
$2,000 a year (from inflation.) Europe should do around 8 million
patients a year. The question for BP is this: Does BP want to share
what may be 1/3 of $20 billion with AMRN...or do they pull the trigger
early on to keep 100% in key markets.
One astute poster who no longer posts on IH was asked what he thought
AMRN would go for in buyout. His answer: $30 billion which today
would be around $70 a share. To get that type of value we'd have to
hold around $30-35. Right now I think the highest bid any BP would
dare to make would be around $18.5 billion or $45 a share. I just
don't believe the current management team is right to GIA. They have
never proven to me that they value shareholders (and the value of the
stock) the way I would have wanted. Executives wanting to build
great companies, keep accumulating their stock confidant it will
gain in value...a behavior I see lacking here with the executive team.
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