Replies to post #204102 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[PacificNW]

Is the FDA really considered a lock by the street? It isn't considered a lock here. Just a day ago ICER ruling was coming up and there was tremendous uncertainty with that right here. I believe the street has put a lot of their faith on the past and is mistrusting the FDA , and can you blame them, after the FDA is a questionable gov't organization that has breed mistrust and has questionable ties and relationships and allegiance to unknown/known parties.
I personally believe/hope/pray that the FDA comes thru and does the right thing, but it sure feels uncertain due to their past actions with AMRN and a multitude of others. And anyone who says approval is baked into the price is deluded imho.
Until this unknown is crossed off the list it remains a question mark and a big one at that. And that is why I believe the price will jump once it is approved, and lets hope there are no snags, delays and problems from them.

[KCSVEN]

If they had 5 billion in peak sales and took a few years to get there the total life of drug sales before generics enter ends up around $45 billion. So that's a good answer as to why not $50 billion.

[Insync_2000]

Talking about the addressable market. Did a bit of back of the envelope analysis and the potential of this company is massive. Right now Amarin is selling approximately 7.6 million capsules a week which when divided by 4 capsules a day and 7 days a week suggests that the current count on Vascepa is approximately 270,000 patience. Recognizing that at $1,650 per patient, per year, Amarin will generate $450 million, which can roughly be translated to a half billion dollars in revenue for every 300,000 patience.

When one digests the multiple of millions in the US alone that are candidates for this drug, the potential inherent in this company is absolutely mind boggling. There has been talk that 10s of million are candidates in the US alone and at a half billion dollars for every 300 million patience, revenue could easily get into the 15 to 20 billion dollar range.

Putting even a 3 X multiplier to gross revenue is …. holy shit ... I will leave the rest to your imagination.

[sharinky]

Market cap would be higher, except that short interest is growing. As shorts cover, AMRN market cap will rise. As scripts rise, AMRN market cap will rise. As revenue and profits rise, so will market cap. There are still people out there that do not understand the science and they have not researched all available info on this drug. They still think that any fish oil will do. Patience has already paid off with this one and will continue to in the future.


Settlement Date Short Interest Avg Daily Share Volume Days To Cover
7/15/2019 31,975,343 14,916,133 2.143675
6/28/2019 25,220,121 4,572,385 5.515747
6/14/2019 25,242,508 4,638,075 5.442454
5/31/2019 26,542,109 6,245,726 4.249644
5/15/2019 25,577,533 5,083,965 5.031021
4/30/2019 23,732,579 5,442,797 4.360365
4/15/2019 21,911,936 5,652,460 3.876531
3/29/2019 21,149,076 10,714,138 1.973941
3/15/2019 16,859,967 8,086,743 2.084890
2/28/2019 17,514,524 10,037,142 1.744971
2/15/2019 15,412,976 4,855,404 3.174396
1/31/2019 15,065,645 7,767,156 1.939660
1/15/2019 16,974,105 12,298,414 1.380187
12/31/2018 13,323,771 7,448,872 1.788696
12/14/2018 9,943,629 5,179,864 1.919670
11/30/2018 16,034,312 9,746,032 1.645214
11/15/2018 11,354,568 17,939,623 1.000000
10/31/2018 17,500,650 10,687,612 1.637471
10/15/2018 13,052,628 26,912,387 1.000000
9/28/2018 16,229,338 40,089,798 1.000000

[HerbieRay]

PPS is never established by addressable Market. Results and current penetration percent have something to do with it.