Replies to post #237566 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[meirluc]

hopeforthefuture, we will eventually find out how many treatment patients and how many placebo/control patients turned out to be long term survivors.

But consider the fact that by definition, all the PFS among the 99 placebo/control group had to come from the 33 placebo patients that never received DCVax-L. We were told during February 2017 that 75% of the trial had progressed and therefore close to 25% of the trial was still PFS. In the unlikely event that the placebo/control arm had the same percentage of PFS as the trial arm, we would have had about 58 PFS of 223 trial patients and about 25 PFS of 99 placebo/control patients.

What are the odds that of the 33 permanent placebo patients who during February 2017 were already 36 months past their midpoint surgery, 25 or even 20 were still PFS? This is highly unlikely. That would also imply that only 8-13 patients among the 33 placebo patients progressed and despite the fact that they were entitled to receive DCVax-L, did not receive the vaccine after regrowth of their tumor.

In fact I believe that most of the 33 true placebo patients suffered a progression event and did not receive PFS because they were too sick, died very soon after progressing or did not received DCVax-L for a variety of reasons. Most likely only a few patients among the 33 were still PFS during February 2017 or somewhat earlier.

I therefore believe that by February 2017 the percentage of patients that were still PFS was statistically significantly higher in the treatment arm with a much smaller PFS percentage in the placebo/control group.