Replies to post #9812 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[odd_sod]

Bigon, thanks for this very thorough post. There's lots of meat there.

Bob

[volgoat]

yes BOT-

Now you're talking...PPHM is to small even if they had the CASH, they'd have to partner.

A PHII partner is much better than pre-clinical or PHI, especially if the data is good.

A BP partnership will quickly legitimize this entire platform.......Two or more will light a fire under this stock.

Throw in HIV/CMV/Influenza and no telling....

[1967_sojourner]

BOT - hmmm the three BP's associated

w/ the chemo agents are Eli Lilly, BMS and Sanofi Aventis. With the exception of Sanofi none of these boys were on my who wants to to buy PPHM list. Interesting if true though. That would seem to imply there would only be collaborations and not an all or nothing buyout - also interesting if and only if these people actually do the work and with some vigor (not like Schering - half as*^d)!

Regarding Cotara. I went back and found that Temodor (sp) is manufactured by our old friends - Schering. Remember the one's who screw#d us and left the program. Perhaps a useful ruse and delay tactic on their part. I'm still hopeful.

Regarding Bavi in antiviral land - I'm convinced you are correct on the co-infection side. With 40% of HCV patients having HIV and no tapped market here we are free and clear.

Regards . . . and keep it coming!

[Bulldog010]

WOW...good one here.


BOT...trowing out the predictions better than old Ed Legere.

Some of the investors here are way to smart for this...come on.


PPHM’s first Ph II study will be paid for through a collaboration with the BP that has the greatest stake in protecting its chemo market share in the tumor type PPHM decides to go after. Contrary to views I have expressed previously, it now seems the investment banking route will be too expensive (heavy warrant coverage would be required) and third party licensing of Cotara for GBM may not make sense for the reasons discussed below. Clearly a financing in the $40M-$45M range (i.e., $33M for Ph II/III and another $7M-$12M for general working capital needs) is way beyond the reach of UU or any other PIPE player.

In my IBG, based on MRI tumor scans done in Dec and Jan, the Company will finalize a BP collaboration in Feb and file the Ph II/III with the FDA the same month and start dosing patients in April. The BP who is willing to run lock-step with PPHM in achieving this aggressive schedule will win Bavi rights for its primary cancer market at a much lower cost than other BPs will have to pay down the road for licensing rights in their respective cancer markets. It’s also possible PPHM could announce two Ph II/III studies starting roughly the same time, each supported and funded by a separate BP collaboration.

News of this BP horse race could leak out in Jan or Feb in advance of a PR of top line data from the 12 patient Indian combo trial. If several BPs are competing for the same collaboration, there is likely to be an industry buzz in addition to the buzz that may come out of the Indian medical community.