Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[Bulldog010]

WOW...good one here.


BOT...trowing out the predictions better than old Ed Legere.

Some of the investors here are way to smart for this...come on.


PPHM’s first Ph II study will be paid for through a collaboration with the BP that has the greatest stake in protecting its chemo market share in the tumor type PPHM decides to go after. Contrary to views I have expressed previously, it now seems the investment banking route will be too expensive (heavy warrant coverage would be required) and third party licensing of Cotara for GBM may not make sense for the reasons discussed below. Clearly a financing in the $40M-$45M range (i.e., $33M for Ph II/III and another $7M-$12M for general working capital needs) is way beyond the reach of UU or any other PIPE player.

In my IBG, based on MRI tumor scans done in Dec and Jan, the Company will finalize a BP collaboration in Feb and file the Ph II/III with the FDA the same month and start dosing patients in April. The BP who is willing to run lock-step with PPHM in achieving this aggressive schedule will win Bavi rights for its primary cancer market at a much lower cost than other BPs will have to pay down the road for licensing rights in their respective cancer markets. It’s also possible PPHM could announce two Ph II/III studies starting roughly the same time, each supported and funded by a separate BP collaboration.

News of this BP horse race could leak out in Jan or Feb in advance of a PR of top line data from the 12 patient Indian combo trial. If several BPs are competing for the same collaboration, there is likely to be an industry buzz in addition to the buzz that may come out of the Indian medical community.