Replies to post #27139 on Marker Therapeutics Inc (MRKR)

[Jeff4iam4]

My opinion? Not much of a downside risk come 20th. At worst the risk looks like it might not do as well as some are touting...but it "could" meet most people's expectations....we have to wait and see. Next catalyst should be either November to December based on posts by those ( like Phantomlord and others) who closely analyze this company and actually call the company to do their research.

[lumpy9200]

Cincinnatus, I'm another that mostly lurks on this board. As far as downside if results aren't great for PC, I see a drop into the $5's as the worst case scenario.....and I'll triple my position if that happens. I bought MRKR not because of PC, as I never even knew they were going after that. To me, the PC is a bonus. I do think the stock will drop if the data isn't great, but that's only because it's run up so much since the news came that we'd be announcing details on the 20th.

With that said, I expect good news like most on this board, so I think we're looking at the last few days of ever getting this stock in single digits again.

All just my humble opinion, as always

Best,
G

[attilathehunt]

I am a strong believer in the science and tend to (understatement) hype the results. In all fairness, if the news/results are flat, I expect we could go back to under $6. Perhaps under $5 if the shorts attempt to drive it down with the downward momentum. If that happens, it will be a gift since results later this year should exceed current SOC. In any event, I expect the share price to rise (and stick) with each trial update.

IMO, the shelf is the big unknown and I believe we will get some clarity on it on Monday’s (22nd) stakeholders conference call.

[Phantom Lord]

Obviously there is always a risk vs reward aspect to investing. I think the main reason this board focuses mostly on on the "reward" aspect is because up to this point the results have been very promising. There is not a whole lot of reason to think that PC data will be bad. The MultiTAA platform has already shown plenty of efficacy and a safety profile better than most therapies out there.

Since your phrasing about the risk was "what if results aren't as stellar as being anticipated" I'll take that literally. I believe there are plenty of people who are expecting insane results come the data release. If results are decent but not stellar, as you put it, then we might see a slight, short term drop, due to people's expectations being a bit too high. This will be the first public readout from the PC trial so no one really knows what to expect at this point. So, should we see data that doesn't meet most people's expectations I wouldn't be surprised to see a drop back down to the $5-$6 range. If data is bad, and I don't think anyone here is expecting that, I still don't see a drop much further than $5. All that being said what needs to be remembered is that PC has been historically tough to treat. The bar is very low when it comes to showing efficacy because of this. We don't need the results to be stellar for this trial to be granted breakthrough or fast track designation by the FDA.

All this being said PC isn't even the lead indication. AML is. Up until early this year the PC trial was not on anyone's radar. If PC doesn't pan out the other trials in AML, multiple myeloma, lymphoma, all have more mature data that has also been looking very promising. They also have a breast cancer trial running with the MultiTAA therapy. They have the TPIV vaccine trials, most funded by the DoD. Marker has multiple shots on goal here so I would say this is significantly de-risked at this point in time.

As for the next catalysts we are looking out to the end of this year. Should get interim results on the TPIV 200 trial in ovarian cancer and the initiation of the PII AML trial. I also wouldn't be surprised to see a presentation at ASH. Other catalysts that don't have set dates are reults from the DoD funded, Mayo sponsored PII trial of TPIV 200 for patients with TNBC. Initiation of the DoD funded, Mayo sponsored PI trial of TPIV 100 for patients with DCIS and the PII combo trial of TPIV 100 and Herceptin for patients with HER2/neu-positive breast cancer. These trials are all funded by the DoD with grants to Mayo so while Marker owns the product rights they are not directly running the trials so we will only get news when Mayo reports. There is no set timeline and I would expect any news from these trials to come out of nowhere.

Again, the data we have seen up to this point has looked very promising. While there is always a risk vs reward aspect to investing that should be considered there are multiple reasons why this board is mostly bullish. If anything significantly negative arises I can guarantee that it will be discussed here. We just haven't reached that point yet.

[KeithamdMIC]

Cincinnatus well said. As in any pharmaceutical stock upcoming news events get blown out of proportion as to how much a stock is going to run up because of predicting results with some evidence to support that analysis. Then even if by industry standards the news is good but not the home run just maybe a single or double, then the panic sets in and boom back to $6.00. It’s almost comparable to companies like Apple who miss quarterly profit predictions and the stock tanks. Of course I’m delighted with the recent increase in MRKR share price but also realistic about how news or upcoming results can be misinterpreted and hence have a pull back in share price.

[microcapbiotech]

I think realistically, the risk is not great as Pancreatic cancer is not their forefront and have other irons in the fire. YES, solid tumor effectiveness would be GREAT.
A complete fail on July 20, we may go down to $6, but with data by the end of the year, should be right back where we are.