Replies to post #156394 on Sino Agro Food Inc (fka SIAF)

[RealDutch]

This Memo is exactly what you are just discovering.

Not entirely. I'm aware of the formula of expected value in probability theory (and I like it), and there's an overlap, but I'm also saying something else.

Let's go back 2 years ago, after Solomon visited Sweden. Expectations were rather high. The odds, in our favor. Solomon would do this and that, we all remember the list with a dozen "triggers". Nothing came of it. The stock came down because expectations were also coming down...

Another example. I lost money on NFLX puts through the years. What did I do wrong? Well, first of all they were doing a lot of deals and I underestimated the strength of their brand. But the thing is, I was buying puts at a time when market expectations were rising, instead of going down. That was my mistake. (If you could call it that because I was just hedging a bit against a market crash).

I still haven't made my point, I think. So let's try this.
In 2014 the stock was trading at $3. Then ECAB signed the bond. They were effectively buying stock for $7.50. The stock went from $3 to $17 but it took a while... Why did the stock go up? NOT because sentiment was improving. NOT because we had more buyers than sellers (although that is also important) But because expectations were going up... We had the Mega Farm, we had financing, and FD would solve all our problems. lol. So, I don't have to be right about the outcome (my predictions) as long as expectations are rising... is what I'm trying to say.

[RealDutch]

but to know when the market is wrong takes a lot of skill and a bit of luck.

It sure does.

The market is wrong about expectations for the F-1 filing and stock dividend. We have a better than 50% chance. The problem is, the value part of the equation. I know it's $1.50, or close. But the market may not give a sht anymore. That's our problem here. As for Solomon selling assets, that's indeed a long shot.

As for the other stock (HERB), I really think I am right and the market wrong. And the value is there. At least I have explained why the stock is trading where it is.

[Mr. Fister]

If you believe in the fundamental value in the company. Why dont you buy on Merkur now?