Replies to post #198446 on Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[rafunrafun]

AMRN to ACST:

hold our beer.

[KCSVEN]

Why would it be a threat to Amarin, they are currently Phase 3 in lowering Trigs above 500 mg, no comparison to RI outcome trial. If they ever could fully fund an outcome trial they might be a competitor in about 8 years.

[jessellivermore]

RE Acasti...(CaPre/krill oil)

Quote: "ACST's science has the potential of having a significant impact on the large cardiovascular industry, and the Phase III Trial results are only 6 months away. Even if positive Phase III Trial results are a 30% probability, then the price today should be $8.29/share. And if Phase III Trials demonstrate strong results, it appears that this little biotech might just be offering a realistic 30-to-1 payoff, with a fraction of the risk."

This is complete nonsense....The EPA in Krill oil is the same EPA (the FFA form) as the EPA found in fish oil...In fact the fish get their EPA from the krill and other sources...krill oil offers no special sauce and the idea that it does is not valid. I did see an article in a Canadien nutritional journal that claimed wondrous results in controlling lipids..But checking the results they were not consistent with the Friedewald Equation and every error in the paper was in favor of krill oil..(indicating the data was being fudged)....

IMO Krill oil will be no more effective than fish oil in treating CVD event risk...If you invest in Acasti you will lose your money...

":>JL....

[Bolio98]

If positive Phase III Trial results are a 30% probability

We had other krill oil "can't miss" challengers and I don't see that any of them materialized into products. 30% probability? Why so low?

[SonamKapoor]

Sstyles, take a look at my krill post #150808 from Oct 2018.

It's probably fine if you're thinking of it as a momentum play. I'd get out before the hype bubble pops.

My thoughts:

- Capre will show some efficacy
- greater bio-availability of PL form will be more than offset by DHA and other fatty acids diluting the mix
- seems EPA is about 8x better than DHA for improving certain biomarkers of inflammation
- Capre will be hard-pressed to achieve blockbuster status because of limited volume of krill and their PL form of EPA's effects masked by other bioactive ingredients in mix.
- AMRN because of first mover advantage, if their sales warranted it some many years down the line, could form a supply consortium and utilize the EPA in krill (convert from PL to EE form).

EE form works from a production standpoint b/c of 1) consistency 2) through-put and 3) cost [b/c not taking it back to a rTG form]

Calanus finmarchicus (copepods out of Norway) for calanus oil has been much talked about this year especially making a go of it in the supplement world. It's a wax ester form (think whales or beeswax). See video: calanus oil

I think AMRN has a niche because of limited supply and production capability and that's why I haven't paid much attention to the generic lawsuits. I did read Vu's link to one of the cases - the judge accepted most of AMRN's claim constructions. I'd like to see as Zip suggests AMRN take it to trial, they'd likely win. But, most of these patent cases settle before trial.

It's a volume play as JT keeps saying over and over again. Not so much volume that anyone can enter + tricky to produce yet enough volume to be highly commercially successful.