I have zero problems with a LT bullish outlook on Gold. Likely warranted (IF all the "fundamentals" actually materialize). What I do have a problem with is the euphoric, straight up movement the last 2 weeks and the sentiment that this will continue on.
IMO, Gold is pricing in perfection in the near-term (trade war escalation, Fed cutting 0.5% in July, Iran escalating, etc). That's a recipe for disaster when so many folks are chasing FOMO. All it takes is for Trump/Xi to turn buddy-buddy again next week and then what?
As for the gaps across the sector. THAT is just as concerning. Everyone is comparing this to 2016 (some saying it will be bigger!). Look at 2016. The move was daily and gradual. NOT gap after gap after gap that wasn't filled. In fact, there's only 2 outstanding gaps left on that entire move...both from the very beginning of the move and relatively small in size. Most every other gap filled within days before continuing higher. Assuming GDX/NUGT gap again today...that will be 5 outstanding gaps in 16 trading days! With several of them HUGE. Not to mention, folks fail to remember that 2016 was a response to a FIVE YEAR STRAIGHT DECLINE!
Ohhh, and technically speaking, RSI. RSI! Already at an all-time high and likely to go higher today. Check out what happened the last time RSI got extreme like this on GDX/NUGT and the move that followed (see pre-2016 move mentioned above). That in itself is cause for hesitation to chase right here IMO.
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