Replies to post #29 on SPX Elliott Waves (SP500)

[gdl]

OR we could be in Intermediate wave i of Major 3 as described by Tony Caldaro's site.

This is why I never use such road maps. it is always under reconstruction, even the LONG TERM charts can be very wrong.

What was YOUR call in late 2015/early 2016? if that chart can change the long term path so dramatically you can conclude anything at any point in time.

All i know is that world wide political dangers combined with extreme wealth disparity ALWAYS coincide with economic tops. the hard part is determining how far we can go in the extremes. With the present situation and deflationary forces via saturated debt, we can not determine the end game. This process of not being allowed the normal outlet for excesses via inflation actually enables the stock market to achieve mega bubbles unheard of 20 years ago.

Imagine wall street demanding the 2.5% fed rate to be cut in order to maintain this bull market? is that even rational? In other words being already in an historically low rate period and having near all time highs in confidence, service sector, and employment how is even the utterance of the FED cutting rates rationals?

BUT how this plays out is anyone's game till we actually see the bubble burst.

[NASARAVI]

Gratitude

Looking at 2921 then down to 2722-2728 area will complete a double bottom is my take

Have some longs in financials - see what happens

Your option 2 is a good possibility but since we have plenty time for earnings - we may get to 2728 is my call.

Regards.

[BOS]

I in no way think I understand EW and I’m currently studying but look at the Quarterly chart on 10 year view....

Is it positive it’s been an extended 5 wave pattern and has topped, but now is in flat corrective wave?

Forgive my ignorance.

[gratitude]

ok, so market got to black B and it got enough waves for the up move. So, if market wants to reverse and do option #1, now is the time. Otherwise, if it keeps going up over the next days, option #2 will be in play,.

[gratitude]

Current Elliott Waves - Not much change from last weekend, as expected market got to black B, and from here I see the same 2 options as described last week:
1. market will head down to finish larger green wave 2 - what i do not like about this one is that it put the end of wave B above the old ATH - if it goes like that, the entire move in May-June will be a huge flat, with wave A having 3 waves, wave B with 3 waves (only 2 waves done so far), and wave C with 5 waves (to follow).
2. It is possible that wave green 2 is done (entire May) and it started wave green 3 up, by doing so far waves blue ((i)), ((ii)) and (iii) in progress - this will explain the action from last week.

Now, the action last week is supporting more and more option #2. However, we reached a big inflection point and market will have to decide direction.

As seen in picture, regardless of #1 or #2, I expect the market to pull back next week at some point. Now, if the pullback over the first 3 days of pullback is shallow, the market chose option #2 and after 3 days of pullback or so it will head up again (see blue arrow). If the pullback over the first 3 days of the decline is deep and fast, market chose option #1 (see black arrow).

Do not use Elliott waves for short term trading - they work properly for longer term trading (i.e. 2-3 months is the best)