Replies to post #230463 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[IkeEsq]

RE: Poor Man -

Objectively, any CEO that manages a company that loses a significant value in its stock price during a bull market for biotech; engages in highly dilutive and toxic financing; runs into compliance issues with Nasdaq (not once, but twice); had to delist from a major exchange; and are the target of a SEC investigation, would in all likelihood have lost their job for any one of those -- most certainly for any two of the five.

I do not disagree that what you say occurred and that these things are bad. Where I disagree is with simply saying things are bad without being able to cite Linda Powers as being responsible for them. Saying that they occurred while she was in charge is a conclusory statement. What I am looking for is what we lawyers refer to as "but for" causation. If not for Linda Powers's actions/inaction, these things would not have occurred. The forces mustered up against a small bio-tech, especially one whose product threatens an entrenched and highly-lucrative business, are formidable.

The stock price is an excellent example of this. Stock prices for a startup bio-tech company without an approved product are completely speculative and have very little relation with the company's actual worth. When hedge funds and Big Pharma have hundreds of billions of dollars to throw around, they can make the price almost whatever they want. The fact that NWBO's stock has been heavily manipulated by shorts is well documented. Look at this Washington Post article from almost 5 years ago. Or simply see how any announcement of good news results in a dip in the share price.

In the spring of 2012, NWBO's market capitalization topped out at over $800 million. If we assume that NWBO would be worth $10 billion if they receive approval for DC Vax-L, something that was at least 5 years in the future at that time, then the stock price reflects that such an occurrence was only about an 8% possibility, ignoring the likelihood of future stock devaluation. And that was soon after the Phase III trial began. Today the company is worth less than $200 million, despite being 7 years closer to the finish line. This suggests that the market thinks that there is less than a 2% chance of success, even when the chance of future stock devaluation is almost non-existent compared to 7+ years ago.

If we look just at these numbers, it seems pretty clear that the stock price has almost nothing to do with the actual chances of success of the company and its ultimate value. Likewise, it has little to do with Linda Powers. Sure, maybe if she had done X, Y, and Z we would be at $0.40 or $0.50 instead of $0.25 to $0.30 but ultimately, the only price that matters is the one after approval or rejection by the RAs.

I believe that concentrating on the negative results of actions by NWBO's enemies rather than the positive results of NWBO's management is the wrong way to look at this. While we have been watching NWBO struggle to survive, a lot of similar bio techs have failed. Some because their products did not work, others because their trials did not show what they hoped, others because BP crushed them like bugs or bought them for nothing. IF we want to look at the 'but-for' on the stock price, I believe that without Linda Powers and the NWBO management team, this board wouldn't exist and the price would be at $0.00. I'll take $0.27 over that any day.