Replies to post #229966 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[kabunushi]

So if you have the courage of your convictions, what % of your shares are you going to sell today to buy back on Monday? Even if you can correctly predict a move, it gains you nothing if you don't trade it. I believe you about most likely the basic nature of MB's talk. And maybe the stock retraces to .32 on Monday. But I don't forsee any big tumble and I'm not going to try to scalp .02, though a sale at .34 and buy back at .31 would be a 10% gain, and if I sold shares with cost basis above .34 and bought back within 30 days I would not lose long term holding period. So it's not an unreasonable trade at all, as long as no big surprise news from MB leads to a gap-up open on Monday, and that seems very unlikely.

[kabunushi]

I mean, nobody except the really wishful thinkers should be expecting more than what you mentioned. There has been zero talk about SAP completion so I'm sure we all know it's not completed, certainly not gotten feedback from any agency so far even it was completed and they have kept that secret. Who are the longs you think will sell out of disappointment? Not the smarter ones, though I suppose there might be a few. JMO.

[iwasadiver]

Oh man, you crack me up. The business end of this right now is secondary to what they're doing with the science. Whatever disappointment anyone feels with anything NWBO has to say about anything this weekend is self imposed.

This incessant and obsessive need to know every detail of every piece of data at one's own desirable time line to be able to dream of one's own riches is beyond my comprehension. This is firstly about people with Glioblastomas, then about investors. This is a huge trial and I guarantee you no one, no one on this earth, is dragging their feet on getting this trial finished. NWBO was absolutely crucified when they gave timelines in the past and did not meet them. What is it about how important it is to get this data collected and statistically analyzed correctly do people like yourself not understand?

Do you truly believe that announcing top line results at ASCO is the end all be all? Do you really believe scientists and physicians who're working their asses off to be sure the data delivers what they're seeing care about your investment strategy? Seriously? The thing will be what it will be and the pressure everyone involved with this study feels is about getting it right, not about what you and 20 people on an anonymous message board want.

[longfellow95]

Surely if you already expect little of substance, why would you expect to be disappointed?
Disappointment generally relates to expectations being unfulfilled not fulfilled.

Whether the market is disappointed is another thing all together. Market analysts (apart from Larry Smith) have long since chosen to ignore NWBO or belittle it. Who was that female commentator who made the remark about 'only five GBM P3's running and one of them being DCVax, so that makes four..'?
This has been priced in the basement of the basement for years.
And is therefore thankfully less attractive as a target for organised shorting. It can't be driven into bankruptcy, not this year anyway.

As of the release of the PR, we know they haven't unblinded, so we know that topline is completely off the table for ASCO.
You could ask the question why didn't we tank yesterday, as soon as this became apparent.
Instead we saw a decent rise (at least up to the MM imposed ceiling).
Imo, the market is generally not very perceptive when it comes to distinguishing between what amounts to window-dressing and real (but unobvious) substantive news anyway.

I hope to get indicators that somewhat firm up timescales.
And I believe that after all the years of extended timescales, things are coming to a conclusion this year.
At least topline, followed by a subsequent full data exposition. And hopefully regulatory submissions submitted.
And the out of touch analysts will finally have to acknowledge that this is real.

We won't get full 4yr survival figures, though we might get a KM estimation.
We will surely get an update on survival median of Top100, or its near equivalent post 36-month survivors.
Maybe LL trailed this with her comment on extended survival without progression.

I really don't know if we will get a currently living total.
They still are somewhat between a rock and a hard place with the constant watchful eye of the SEC and the FDA, so they will not overstep the mark, and will surely make liberal references to caution being required.

One of the things that I'm intrigued to find out, is the status of PFS adjudication.
Whether it has been completed and whether the process itself has been green lighted by the regulator(s).
They successfully skirted round it last year, without many (outside this message board) really noticing.
And the follow-up to that, being whether PFS retains its status as primary endpoint. I expect it will, and think it probably is the way to go, if they want to avoid the complications surrounding OS, due to crossover.

I really have no idea what the market will do on Monday, but if I had to guess, I would think we will get a small temporary boost, almost regardless of what they actually report, before settling back down at about 0.3395 a week later!

Basically, I don't think the needle will move radically in either direction.

If I'm surprised, it will be an upside surprise.