Bourbon -
Was out yesterday. Here’s some general info which might interest you and others? Can’t and don’t want to cite specifics for other companies on this board - would be off topic and set a precedent - can’t do this for all companies - not appropriate nor desirable (maybe Tom’s forum would be a better place for occasional updates?) but really don’t want to be inundated with requests for info about projected outcomes - no guarantees and still testing, learning, and improving! This is some background into the scope of the project and its intended (hoped for) future. I did answer your question as a one time exception in very general terms (see bottom), but strongly disclaim to all - no guarantees, do not rely upon for your investment strategy, don’t kill the messenger, and NOT A PRECEDENT! (Call it “Good Will” or “Marketing/Advertising Cost” so I can write off my iHub subscription as business expense?)
Regards, Bio
(Long and technical so may wish to save for a time when our stock price isn’t moving like it is today! Much better show to watch there!!! This is for downtime, but a little interesting. Just had to post when I got around to it or I could drop the ball waiting for a better time. So - here’s the ball...coming into your court. My housekeeping is done, phew!)
Bourbon writes:
My questions:
1. What is the investment track record (ROI) of this program?
Bio:
Regret, not for public disclosure at this time (working with partners) but prudent just the same. Will disclose after fully tested, and protected, prior to and part of marketing! Can give you a heads up when that is due out. Additionally, the ROI is not one number. It has various components which can be optimized or this parameter can be set for a steady desired ROI based on instruments of risk and each investor’s comfort level with the associated risk including but not limited to: options - puts, calls, buying selling each, combination of long and short strategies in conjunction with options, consideration of dividends and history and probability of splits, rolled over or taken off the table, swing trading, you get the picture.
There is not one ROI of the program. There are speculative ROI’s for individual stocks, or for optimized or randomized (custom) portfolios within sectors and across sectors, indices, mutual funds and more.
More aspects of the software: speculation of day trading maneuvers, after hours trading, bonds, foreign currencies - buying/selling forward as hedge against exchange rate risk in doing business abroad (most companies do this internally; this takes into account ability to do for sectors, such as oil, which trade heavily overseas. Same with commodities market and precious metals, and companies/sectors reliant on these materials.)
The machine is learning on many fronts. No ordinary stock picking program - highly enriched by analytics, being fed “instances” which are historical occurrences which impacted stocks or sectors (targets) in some way historically (up/down unanticipated) due to investor reaction. Very similar to machine learning of the game poker (some of the same brilliant minds here have provided input in design to code) and gain the highest advantage from how other gamblers have behaved historically coupled with actual knowledge of cards which are showing. This susses out the MM “bluff” manipulation effect to “teach” best response and how to profit or stay afloat in those situations.
Identifies “edges” which are amazing unseen correlations whose effects would be impossible to track in any way other than HPC data mining. Constantly being updated. Ultimately in the commercial subscription-based version, huge historical database and constantly refreshed supply of public data which investors will interface with would be housed on PSC’s HPC, along with other HPC’s located regionally across US and eventually globally. Subscribers’ data/behavior will be mined also in order to gain from constant iterative learning; anonymity/privacy will remain intact. Unless serious flags in behavior. Have approached SEC about possibility of working together to right that ship. Most flagrant manipulators (Shkreli) would not subscribe to an interface! But smaller fish might?
Let’s just say re ROI: if one wishes to achieve optimally favorable odds of greatest (that’s the pathology of programming and programmers, to attempt to perfect optimal in everything, obsessive compulsive superlatives...as in “greatest, highest, maximum”, so let’s use consistently acceptable/favorable...) ROI, evidence has been suggestive of machine learning from mined data and fed “instances” more than capable.
Think of a poker game...ROI is tough to determine. Your initial investment has an adjustable return based on skill level of players, length of play, cards you are dealt (your best strategy based on bad luck might be to fold early each hand or attempt to bluff, which cannot be done in the market, but if the overall market slumps - Great Depression, then, bank or mattress could be better ROI’s than market or banks - which folded. Real estate, bullion... in some cases preserving capital is best return. Today, a Great Depression would tend to be global - just the nature of the beast as markets are interdependent, however, there would still be some developing markets in less industrial countries, but these markets carry high risk due to seriously poor oversight, fraught with manipulation.) In order to determine if ROI outperforms everything(!), would have to weigh in: buying developing foreign markets, beanie babies and baseball cards, etc., ad infinitum. And still no guarantees!!! If Van Gogh lived into his 80’s and had been painting more prolifically, we might all own one, but would be worth much less. Who can guess the total output of an iconic painter or when he/she will complete their final work? (Just food for thought for programmers who would like to capture all possible scenarios to optimize)
I’m sure most investors would be happy making a stipulated ROI which can be input and left on autopilot. With the correct tools, and patience, and effort to design these tools to work for us (think/decision assist for us?), that day may not be far. And free from pilot error crashes - adjusting parameters as we speak!
I wonder what regulations will be put in place if investors outpace the market, and the safe hedges routinely? Am guessing that if pure Capitalism were given free rein and everyone had equal access to all information and analytics, and everything were algorithm based and operating on same choices optimized for best moves for all, there could be a theoretical categorical imperative - everyone doing the same thing at the same time...mitigates any advantage and delivers no gain at best and chaos at worst. But, so many “flavors” of investing to choose from to fit each different personality type, agenda, and comfort preferences, this would probably not come to pass. It would be “market by algorithm” and computers playing each other at chess or tic-tac-toe (Wargames movie). Nothing more will be learned without human input and no opportunity for gaining an advantage. [would be tiresome, and the program developers might make a bundle if everyone owned a subscription!!!, but, unlike Apple and smartphones, as a competitive program designed to gain from what others do not see and leave on the table, this would be an exercise in futility accomplishing that goal. Philosophical treatise for the day.]
Boiled down without the tease (but programmers live to conjecture “what next?? How to improve? And, “it’s amazing what can be accomplished right at our fingertips!”) :
ROI across majority of metrics is highly positive, beating all harbored vehicles - banks, bonds, mutual funds, index funds, having a good night at the poker table so far(!) but sometimes a good night at the table is coming home with no loss. (A minority of metrics are returning non-amazing, positive results. More tweaking needed)
Bourbon asks:
2. What else besides AVXL does it like highly?
Bio:
Again, regret can not disclose at this time, nor this forum. Off topic is the least of the problems this presents, for a change...
Also, can’t get into the business of recommending stocks thus setting a precedent again... (and a time suck on my resources, no profit motive - ha!, and don’t want to give preferential treatment nor take the focus off Anavex Life Sciences and further due diligence into treating CNS diseases and bringing drugs to market.
Bourbon:
Bonus:
if you put ADXS in, what response do you get?
Bio:
A clown keeps popping up! ??
None of the programmers knows what this means - sorta like the monolith in 2001...?
Will get back to you if anything meaningful is found -
Go “optimize” your day, Flakes! And all!
Here’s to superlative ROI’s:
Assuming your “investment” is waking up each morning with a mind open to the positives around you, without further expectations of being entitled to a day without setbacks, but being able to put events into perspective based on a desire to help yourself enrich your earthly experience by treating daily nuisances and inconveniences indifferently or as part of a larger upward trend which you ultimately control, and treating everything else as a gift to delight some part of you...
Your real ROI maximized!:
health, family, friends, sunsets, the ignore button, yard work - nidan, peace in the world, better healthcare, more favorable unions, insuring the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, happiness, wealth, taking stock in young persons and instilling good values... restful sleep(!!), joy of ending starvation, disease, suffering, oppression, and gaining wealth to relax and enjoy all which centers around this glorious fanfare!! (s/o EBZ, LL...centers around, lol. Don’t sweat the phrasing, life’s short and wicked funny!! Thank goodness - you both have enough humor to be a delight to the board, thanks for my part!!)
:)
Bio
Btw, current AVXL projection for approval AD moved from 89% to 89.8% - hoping to crack the 90% mark!,
PDD moved from 76% to 79% (since beginning of May, probably because of the shortness of trial, as time decreases we are nearer to end and readouts. Also, opening new sites in Aus. But this is ph2...so actual approval from here should need a ph 3 typically. Program is giving high probability at this stage. Extension patients? Early approval? ElsaSara mentioned that. Hmmm?)
Rett still weighing in at 55%. Not much change since all initial preclinical results and a jump from 51-55 when human trials approved and began.
Epilepsy now registering above preclinical work...47% chance of approval and no trials announced!
Btw, Bourbon, ADXS has actual projections based on indications. If you wish to isolate any particular, I will shoot you back a PM for that along with timeframe. Within the next year, no indication is showing higher than 3.5% chance of approval as of today if that helps. (This includes the FDA lift on the hold for cervical cancer trial.) Now, their message board (ADXS) can kill this messenger...but, hey, it has the ability to defend its projections by “byte-ing” back!
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