Replies to post #20678 on Cel Sci Corporation (CVM)

[tarius729]

could SOC really be that high considering so many study participants reside in countries with lower than avg SOC survivability?

[Fosco1]

Static

I agree with your statements and analysis.

as what Ergomed said, I have a feeling it is more along the lines of an estimated guess

May-be they are just doing a good job as a CRO but they are not analysing data/survival (what the IDMC does), which is not their job, even if they have all the data. For instance if one has 133 deaths in feb 2017 and 208 in feb 2018 then one could say that's 75 deaths in 1 year so 6,25 per month so to get to 298 you need 15 months max which leads to May the next year, so basically not Q1 for sure , but H1. Which would be an approximation which I believe gives the earliest possible date but not he likely date based on survival analysis.

Those numbers would be VERY telling.

: oh yes, I am longing for those numbers ! 270 would validate October or at least H2 2019 and a better than expected overall survival

As per pps prediction, I would be very bad at this. But hope we could reach 15 before anything is announced (600M Mcap) -let's say in September- and then speculatively reach 800 Mcap (20 ) when Cel Sci says "298" and provides a bullish "sentiment" in the PR, and then if positive 1 to 5 B to start with, as a Basis until FDA approval etc, big Pharma talk etc. etc... 10B at least if talk is successful

could SOC really be that high considering so many study participants reside in countries with lower than avg SOC survivability?

@Tarius : Regarding this, I will refer to my previous post :
Clininical Trial Sites and Survival