Cel Sci Corporation (CVM)

[staticmirror79]

Sushi,

So this is just my personal opinion, I obviously could be very wrong. I would prefer that things end sooner than later, but again time is on our side now.

As far as what Ergomed said, I have a feeling it is more along the lines of an estimated guess. Just like when CVM updated the trial to say ending Sept 2019. I think we are nearing the finish line here but not quite there. Remember, back in December and January we had lots of reports claiming the study would end in the first quarter of 2019, that obviously didn't happen :)

The main reason I believe we are trending towards October is because of Foscos spreadsheet (I've linked to it below), mainly spreadsheet number 4, the one calibrated with the real events data from Taiwan. I really feel that as time goes on his spreadsheets seem more and more accurate. This is why:

After all the research and various studies people have brought up and I've looked at, I believe that our average SOC survival is probably somewhere around 60-65% for 3 years. Even with no real advancements in treatment for 60 years, there still has to be some increase in overall survival. A 5-10% increase seems reasonable.

Also, the IDMC meeting in March was telling in a few ways imo. It told us, the study isn't over, which is great obviously. But it also told us there isn't a clear cut winner here yet. That would make a lot of sense as far as the October numbers go since we would need a little more time for there to be a clear cut difference. I think that difference is becoming apparent more and more now. By July they should be able to tell for sure what's happening.

It will be really interesting if we can get some new numbers from Taiwan this May to line things up better. Those numbers would be VERY telling. If they line up to Foscos spreadsheet still then we are golden.

The only thing that would screw us over is if survival is just absurdly higher, above 65-70% for 3 years. I just don't believe that.

That's my serious answer. I'd love to be wrong in the way that SOC survival is still under 60% and we end in June after the data becomes clear. I'd love to hear your thoughts on Ergomed and ending first half of 2019.

Link:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qW36sMXgKvx2_76GPF3fjmXFYApgsOUq0vU1qlumz6w/edit#gid=1683645669