Replies to post #133462 on Wave Systems Corp. (fka WAVXQ)

[Ispro]

Hi Micro!

Sorry for the late response, just checked in from my daugthers birthday party. Well since I was far off twice this year and had one hit, it´s no touchy thing for me to express what I would consider as an impressive rev ramp.

If you allow I would like to explain, why IMHO it´s really hard to predict (SKS) or even estimate (Wavoids) what SantaClaus will bring...

We have two very different revenue sources at Wave we´ll have to consider.

1. The bundling agreements. Thats the real EASY part (LOL), cause adding the volumes of ETSL enable DELL, GTW and INTEL models should be a NO brainer. BUT most of us were UGLY wrong and therefore really disappointed (ME INCLUDED). What happened? Well for Q3 most of us waited for the full shipped quantity of 3 Latitude and 3 Precision models a 450K pieces divided by 2 what means 1.35M for Wave PLUS GTW, INTEL and the .1 deals.....
What we´ve seen was a 50% quantity from Dell and others, that would hit our .86M exactly.
Obviously we have to think of a new variable in this static bundling arrangements - the model lifecycle!
So for Q4 I assume about 90% for the Latitudes, 70% for the new Precision models and about 10% for the new Optiplexes.
Lets say 1.1M from Dell, fvurthermore with a similar formular I would say 200K from GTW and Intel and about 100K from .1 ESC deals we don´t know.
- 1.5 bundling for Q4
- .1 other services

2. The really UGLY (for estimation) PART. UPGRADES
Thank God nobody is asking me what we´ll sell next year of our maintenance software. It´s a new market, without historical informations or competition data we can refer to. I can point to our revenues in the past our growth rate and make a FLST how our revs in 2007 will look like.
Waves problem is:
1. NEW PRODUCT
2. NEW SLOWLY FORMING MARKET
3. PARADIGM STATUS NOT STATE of the ART
4. Enterprise CRITICAL sector VERY HOT
5. NO enterprise reference customers YET
6. Competition from the exsisting security companies (OLD BUT GOOD?!)
So I would say every piece of ETS full is great for me, but to believe SKS I would hope for 200K at least for Q4

So all in all, I would say everything above 1.5M would be significant (doubling from Q3) everything under 1.2 would be a red flag!

My guess: 2M
My hope: 2.5M (guess for Trend)

I enjoy your posts too, don´t think that other opinions are less appreciated!

BR

ISPRO