Replies to post #224494 on Biotech Values

[jbog]

For a small company like ENTA to emerge from such a clinical cacophony as part-owner of the best-in-class drug is a testament to the company’s drug-discovery expertise, with a bit of luck thrown in for good measure.

I agree with you. Because I'm not as informed on Enta help me out a little.

Back when everyone was jumping up and down about how great Momenta was, and of course I was the only dissenter, I came up with the conclusion or observation that "Momenta's" Enox really was worked out by Ram and Ganesh while under the watch of MIT.

The Research Duo then went on to form Momenta to continue the task. In truth, Momenta hasn't really ever accomplished it's famed "superior development" as promised.

My question is how did Enta evolve. I assume it didn't set out a shingle and then ask what should we work on?

[willyw]

I greatly enjoyed looking at the roster of failed compounds/molecules. Some of it was a trip down memory lane.

Many of these treatments were absolute HELL; long long durations, with low cure rates and patients needed help boosting red and white cell counts, transfusions and anti-depressants. Many suffered after treatment long term/permanent damages.
An example where for some, the cure was worse than the disease.

Some had potential, some immediate busts and some like IDIX or ACHN took a while to go nowhere.
I first found one in 2003/4 from B.I. ; BILN 2061

So then started following new compounds.
My little hobby may have saved my life.
It didn't take me long to find out that the best medical information seemed to be on HCV forums and investing forums.

I had bought Vertex in the 20's a long time ago, and managed to sell it at a loss. : ) Meh; perhaps I should have held onto it?

I dabbled in Abbott and Gilead, buying and selling before approvals, but I was still gun shy from being burnt.

When I got into the Gilead trial, I figured that I could follow my "intuition" about investing. My viral load all but disappeared in one week. I bought in.
When I was virus free at 4 weeks I went all in.
When Sovaldi got approved Dec 2013 I shifted to ENTA 100% below $24-28. range.
Gilead is currently trading at about where it was where I sold in 2013.

What a crazy ride!

[dewophile]

Seeing that post was a blast from the past. If I had invested in VRUS instead of IDIX I might be retired by now. The only person I recall who posted here that bought VRUS in the early days shortly after the IPO was rfj1862. I could be wrong but I seem to recall him buying and you mentioning that it was not investable because the float was so low at the time.
I also think that it's good to remember that even though the market is primarily split by only 2 companies/regimens today, many more made money along the way (VRTX, JNJ/MVIR, MRK, BMY) and some small companies gave good returns to investors even though the drugs were a bust (INHX, IDIX). So the odds of an investment success is greater than the odds of picking the ultimate winner(s) in HBV and NASH

[caravon]

Speaking about Enta's AM discussions, Luly stated that similar to the HCV treatment, he expects that NASA and RSV treatments will be drug combinations.
Consequently, ENTA will be looking for a partner(s) with scientific expertise to complement their own expertise.

In general, Luly and others sounded upbeat.