Replies to post #188305 on Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[georgejjl]

I am sure that you meant to say:

All I’m going to say here is that at least one or two or three or more of the trials IMO will result in a success

Good luck and GOD bless,

[falconer66a]

The Science Itself, Not Its Explanation

It’s amazing how the science people who post all day around here understand and can communicate so well

I’ve posted a few explanations of the unique Anavex science, telling in some detail, with reasonable perception, why the Anavex sigma-1 receptor agonists will change so much of 21st-century medicine — equal to or greater than antibiotics in the last century.

The Anavex story is not how well it’s being told or heard. It’s that, for still so many, it’s simply unbelieved. “Nope, no drug can possibly ____________!” Fill in the blanks. Use phrases like, “treat Alzheimer’s,” “prevent senile dementia,” “fix Parkinson’s,” etc.

Anavex Life Sciences Corp is a tiny, unknown biotech startup. No approved drugs to sell. No full, complete, detailed Phase 3 fully-blinded multi-arm clinical trials on humans. Too good to be true. Lots of really smart MDs and PhDs have spent real billions of dollars testing drugs to fix the Central Nervous System biggies, and have failed in every case. Self-perceived smart people (of the investments type) know better. There’s not a thing in the Anavex story book that will result in a real drug, with real sales.

Those people stopped reading the Anavex story book in the second chapter, when I and a bunch of others detailed the multiple mechanisms of action of Anavex 2-73 inside malfunctioning neurons. Recently, a paper was published in a recognized, peer-reviewed journal telling just what I and the other science-types have been saying about Anavex 2-73 on this message board. The stuff works (restores or maintains a number of essential chemical pathways in neurons), just as we’ve described (facilitated proper protein folding to make functional reaction-controlling enzymes, etc.). Actually, all of that was, indeed, beyond their considered comprehension. When reading the science of Anavex, instead of light bulbs lighting up in the readers’ cerebra, only big question marks ascended into thought streams.

For those of us with well-considered long AVXL positions, what are the implications of what I’ve just described? The investment communities, retail (individuals, like myself), mutual funds, pension funds, etc. simply aren’t going to start taking AVXL positions until they are assured of a future, ascending value for AVXL shares. That, to them, has nothing to do with the arcane, inscrutable chemical science of Anavex 2-73. It has to do with the assured prospects of some government’s sales approval of the drug; whether by the FDA here, or perhaps more promptly by the Australian drug approval agency.

And all of that, like everything else, hinges on positive clinical trial outcomes. Will those be from the handful of older girls or young women in the Rett trial? Or, Parkinson’s patients in the trial in Spain? Both of those are much shorter than the big three-arm Alzheimer’s trial.

There will be big buying of Anavex stocks when any of the investment communities read about, “New Anavex drug shows great results in completed trial.” Then, few will care a whit about the biochemistry of the Anavex molecule. The only issues of contention will be the eventual sizes of the Anavex market (number of patients), and how soon the drug can be manufactured and sold. Our discussions about the details of Anavex science will be but curious, historical anecdotes.