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JohnnyTarr

04/04/19 2:54 PM

#2103 RE: Officiousintermeddle #2102

Agreed that if the average is 7.2 a day then they should go ahead and close up shop right now, but I think there is something off with that number. I have no data to back that up, besides reports from a few franchisees, but just using common sense it doesn't pass the sniff test.

I think we can all agree that there are going to be locations that perform well and some that are duds, like most franchises (besides Chick-fil-a). So to get that 7.2 number one you can look at two scenarios.

1. The good locations are about even with the bad locations. So averaging 1 good location and one bad location they combine to only sell 15 vends a day. That doesn't seem very likely to me.

2. There are a lot more bad locations hardly selling anything (~3 to 4 a day) that are bring the average of the good locations down. Considering folks have likely done research and used a little sense before purchasing and placing a machine in those locations, this also seem very unlikely to me.

As stated in number two I'd like to assume that franchisees did their homework. I think the most likely scenario is that there are a bunch of average performing installs (20 to 25 a day), with a few great locations and a few duds. I just don't see anyway that 7.2 is the average sales and something is off with that ticker.


Also, keep in mind that if they hit that ~10 million number in royalties, that is just the beginning. It should go up quite a bit yearly until it finally plateaus with installs.